Brexit

[davemercedes]

OK... but the reason why it went into short supply was driven by price - due to the dollar.
- Which was and still is due to the Brexit vote (with all indicators suggesting more to come).
- No project fear there, just factual increase.

 

[Xtractorfan]

Xtractor has no sense of humour, like a lot of socialists this makes him terminally dull. I may have been a predominately conservative voter but I can laugh at their mistakes and excesses quite easily.

As for shrinkflation, this is not a brexit issue - it's been going on for years.

You do need a good sense of humour when looking at the Tories and their policies and then ever think of voting for them again. or maybe i'm mixing up a sense of humour with blind ignorance.
And for you to lump all socialists in the same mundane psychological insane never ending depressive psychomotor retardation as myself is kinda going a wee bit too far. It almost begs me to ask 'Do you and Craig have the same imaginary friend'

 

[Yugguy]

It's an observation based on years of empirical evidence.

 

[Frontstep]

Hmmm... my sources don't agree.

"United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook
UK GDP growth is expected to ease in 2017 mainly due to slower consumer spending as rising inflation squeezes household budget. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its equilibrium rate of around 4.5 percent in the near term although wage growth is likely to remain low, resulting in falling real wages. Inflation is forecast to peak just below 3 percent in the fourth quarter of the year. In addition, business investment and exports are likely to be supported by depreciation of the sterling and the expected pickup in global growth. The Bank of England is likely to start raising rates in mid-2018. As for the UK public finances, government net borrowing is expected to fall this year to 2.6 percent of GDP amid steady economic growth and strong tax receipts. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy."

View attachment 38026
View attachment 38027

Whilst some of those indicators look good some look distinctly worrying. Currency looks set to fall another 15% against the dollar (so unless oil prices fall thats increased fuel costs), unemployment looks set to rise, the stockmarket will lose a big chunk (around 15%) but most concerning is the rise in interest rates and the effect that will have on household spending.

In the 3 years till 2020 every household in Britain will pay more for almost everything. Thats a cost to the average person and the extra money spend will never be recovered.

Now I don't hold much stock in crystal balls (and I can see some figures here I'd query - specifically inflation in the light of the falling pound and the knock on effect on fuel prices) but since you seem to have a great love of them and frequently make statements about how everything is on the up or similar baseless statements I'd like to see your reasons for the statement quoted.

My source is:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/forecast

My good news is your bad news.
I am very pleased that the CBI reports healthy order books and the USA is looking to give us an EU breaking deal.
I can report the people I know who manufacture are very very happy.
Of the sectors I have good knowledge of only the retailers are grumpy.

 

[LostKiwi]

So

My good news is your bad news.
I am very pleased that the CBI reports healthy order books and the USA is looking to give us an EU breaking deal.
I can report the people I know who manufacture are very very happy.
Of the sectors I have good knowledge of only the retailers are grumpy.

OK so no real facts then. Just crystal ball gazing in this yet to happen 'EU busting deal' (sounds like another Trump tweet/sound bite).

Edit:
Just watched an ITV bulletin that says manufacturing had -0.6% growth. I can't imagine many manufacturers would be happy about that.

 

[Frontstep]

Ab

So

OK so no real facts then. Just crystal ball gazing in this yet to happen 'EU busting deal' (sounds like another Trump tweet/sound bite).

Edit:
Just watched an ITV bulletin that says manufacturing had -0.6% growth. I can't imagine many manufacturers would be happy about that.

You misread, I quote real first hand and from owners of manufacturing businesses not from journalists opinion.
The retailers only medium and small (I know no majors) mentioned are not happy there is no crystal ball gazing at all.
The Trump trade deal is already being hailed by those in the know.

He has just got some very big players to commit in the USA, personally he is toxic but the results for the US economy are good.

If you want facts;

https://www.theengineer.co.uk/uk-manufacturers-firing-on-all-cylinders-says-cbi-report/

We are about to take off trade wise and in the important sectors where real profits and good jobs are created.

 

[LostKiwi]

Ok so the 9% drop in domestic sales of UK built cars with no corresponding increase in exports will be making manufacturers happy (as reported by the BBC this morning). My other half works for JLR and they are seeing a 6% drop overall (including exports). See - I can quote real manufacturing as well.

Incidentally the date of your article wasn't exactly current - 25th January 2017 2:33 pm

If "We're about to take off" based on an article in January it would appear we've got stuck on the runway!

 

[Frontstep]

I c&p this mini rant as some of the facts are checkable and illuminating;

Germany will just have to grin and bear it like companies in the UK have had to. Anyone who thinks the EU is good for British industry or any other business simply hasn't paid attention to what has been systematically asset-stripped from the UK with their assistance.
Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant.

Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant.

Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers’ pension funds.

Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.

British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, using SWEDISH steel rather than that produced in Wales.

Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.

Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200.

M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan.

Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with EU grants.

Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant.

Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.

Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant.

Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Park foam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding.

Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing.

ICI integration into Holland’s AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs.

Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of £80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase.

JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, bought up companies in the UK with £20 million in EU 'regeneration' grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry.

UK airports are owned by a Spanish company.

Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company.

Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies.

The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online.

Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it's Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada.

39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU.

The Mini cars that Cameron stood in front of as an example of British engineering, are built by BMW mostly in Holland and Austria. His campaign bus was made in Germany even though we have Plaxton, Optare, Bluebird, Dennis etc., in the UK.

The bicycle for the Greens was made in the far east, not by Raleigh UK but then they are probably going to move to the Netherlands too as they have said recently

 

[C350Carl]

I saw this at the end of a lonnnnng post elsewhere. But there is some food for thought here.

You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.

What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.

The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.

You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it!

When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that is the beginning of the end of any nation.

It’s also refreshing to see Labour being honest. I mean Corbyn is even saying now that he never promised to write off student debt....

So whilst he never said verbatim ‘I’ll write off student debt’. He’s using the suggestion, to win votes, that he would. And the students fell for it.

However now he’s realised that the government couldn’t afford to do so without cutting elsewhere or borrowing the funds, which would have to be paid back at some point. So is trying to wriggle out of it.

 

[LostKiwi]

a long rant

Interesting you've changed the subject when challenged on the facts regarding manufacturing output of UK companies....?
So here we go again....

Yes most of that is checkable and concerning however what it fails to take into account is how many of those events would have taken place irrespective. It does make lovely anti EU propaganda of course and is great for headlines.

Even those where work went to the EU with an EU grant it may have been preferable for that work to go to the EU (of which we are/were a part) and so remain in the broader economy of the EU rather than go to the far east. Unless you KNOW the discussions that took place at board level we can at best only surmise the rationale behind such decisions and the reasons for grants being offered.

The decisions companies make to move their operations are not foisted on them by the EU but are decisions made at board level for business reasons by those businesses. Any grants will come about after the decision is made to move in most cases.

So in the case of Dyson (a British company founded by a Briton) they chose to move their operations to the far east - the EU didn't decide that for them so to blame the EU is ridiculous. Maybe we should all boycott Dyson for not being patriotic and preserving British jobs instead of blaming the EU? Blaming the EU for this is a bit like blaming Brexit for councils banning diesels in city centres.

Similarly with UK infrastructure being foreign owned. Makes a lovely headline but is more a comment on the state of our internal business processes in the UK than anything negative about the EU. If our businesses running power, airports etc chose to sell out to an EU owned competitor that's their decision not an EU one. I suppose you'll be blaming the EU for Rover being bought by the Chinese next conveniently forgetting it was always a lame duck and our own UK government turned its back on Rover after decades of supporting it financially?

 

[Frontstep]

Interesting you've changed the subject when challenged on the facts regarding manufacturing output of UK companies....?
So here we go again....

Yes most of that is checkable and concerning however what it fails to take into account is how many of those events would have taken place irrespective. It does make lovely anti EU propaganda of course and is great for headlines.

Even those where work went to the EU with an EU grant it may have been preferable for that work to go to the EU (of which we are/were a part) and so remain in the broader economy of the EU rather than go to the far east. Unless you KNOW the discussions that took place at board level we can at best only surmise the rationale behind such decisions and the reasons for grants being offered.

The decisions companies make to move their operations are not foisted on them by the EU but are decisions made at board level for business reasons by those businesses. Any grants will come about after the decision is made to move in most cases.

So in the case of Dyson (a British company founded by a Briton) they chose to move their operations to the far east - the EU didn't decide that for them so to blame the EU is ridiculous. Maybe we should all boycott Dyson for not being patriotic and preserving British jobs instead of blaming the EU? Blaming the EU for this is a bit like blaming Brexit for councils banning diesels in city centres.

Similarly with UK infrastructure being foreign owned. Makes a lovely headline but is more a comment on the state of our internal business processes in the UK than anything negative about the EU. If our businesses running power, airports etc chose to sell out to an EU owned competitor that's their decision not an EU one. I suppose you'll be blaming the EU for Rover being bought by the Chinese next conveniently forgetting it was always a lame duck and our own UK government turned its back on Rover after decades of supporting it financially?

I didn't change the subject, you didn't seem to want to acknowledge my first hand reports from the manufacturers I know.
On the post I christened a rant with the word some underlined highlights some of the problems with EU membership.

Some protectionist policies are needed.

Some : an unspecified number or amount of people or things:

 

[LostKiwi]

I didn't change the subject, you didn't seem to want to acknowledge my first hand reports from the manufacturers I know.
On the post I christened a rant with the word some underlined highlights some of the problems with EU membership.

Some protectionist policies are needed.

Some : an unspecified number or amount of people or things:

Similarly you don't acknowledge the overall trend of UK motor manufacturing (9% downturn in domestic market but no corresponding upturn in exports) nor the -6% Jaguar figures (first hand from my other half who works in the industry). Nor the -0.6% overall national manufacturing downturn I mentioned.

So to recap...
Vehicle domestic market has shrunk (for UK manufacturers).
Manufacturing as a whole is down.
Retail sales are down (as supported by the vehicle domestic market).
Specifically Jaguar are 6% down

But according to you its all wonderful and on the basis of a 6 month old article reported in the press you so disparage we're about to take off because of some yet to be negotiated deal from Trump?

Then you trot out an old rant (its been around at least year) which relies on half truths and incomplete and in some case erroneous data to present headline statements about why the EU is so bad. I'd call that a change of subject.

 

[PovertySpec]

borrowing the funds, which would have to be paid back at some point.

In the future, in the form of higher taxation paid by the kids he lied to

 

[Craiglxviii]

I c&p this mini rant as some of the facts are checkable and illuminating;

Germany will just have to grin and bear it like companies in the UK have had to. Anyone who thinks the EU is good for British industry or any other business simply hasn't paid attention to what has been systematically asset-stripped from the UK with their assistance.
Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant. Poland has some of the most productive workforce going and the land is cheap...

Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant. Ford closed Tranny production in Dagenham after the plant's bid for the new Tranny model was uncompetitive within the Ford group. This is the same reason why the new X Trail will be made in Sunderland vs. St. Petersburg- Sunderland put in a better bid. Nothing to do with the EU.

Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers’ pension funds. The same JLR who are recruiting 1000 production and 4000 engineering/ technical/ design & development staff within the UK and expanding their UK operations?

Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant. Ryton plant was old and worn out, had had no investment in a long time prior to closure and had chronic quality issues.

British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, using SWEDISH steel rather than that produced in Wales. The steel is sourced off the open market so this is a good case for the Swedish armour steels industry being more competitive than ours. AJAX is a General Dynamics vehicle being built at the GD plant in Spain. Again nothing to do with the EU.

Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan. Dyson went over to the Far East 15 years ago because they made him a far better offer.

Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200.

M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan. If this means clothes, then it's because the sweatshops of the Far East will make a pair of jeans for two dollars US and still turn a profit. Try doing that in Manchester.

Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with EU grants.

Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant.

Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.

Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant.

Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Park foam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding.

Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing. Because cost of employment and therefore man-hour dollars per unit are half that of here.

ICI integration into Holland’s AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs. That was the ICI that had been running at a loss for two decades due to chronic mismanagement?

Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of £80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase. And all the other supranational organisations that are based in Switzerland are just there for the chalets?

JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, bought up companies in the UK with £20 million in EU 'regeneration' grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry. With the likes of Philip Green we can drain pension pots dry with the best of 'em.

UK airports are owned by a Spanish company. No. Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted were bought by British Airports Authority, itself owned by Ferrovial, a Spanish investment capitalist business. It was then forced to sell off Gatwick and Stansted, then renamed itself to Heathrow Airport Holdings, then based itself in London. So Heathrow is owned by a British company based in London, with investment from a Spanish company. Not quite so nefarious now eh?

Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company. See below.

Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies. Ask why this is the case. Their governments, including the French, have specific policies towards buying up foreign infrastructure and service operations.

The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online. Specifically because of policy decisions by various UK governments to get out of the nuclear infrastructure game; now France and China are world leaders outside of the US in designing, developing and building nuclear power generation plant.

Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it's Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada. I wonder what Alsthom have to say about that?

39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU. And why is that the EU being evil? How many have come into the UK?

The Mini cars that Cameron stood in front of as an example of British engineering, are built by BMW mostly in Holland and Austria. His campaign bus was made in Germany even though we have Plaxton, Optare, Bluebird, Dennis etc., in the UK. Someone had better tell Cowley works then, they were churning out 250,000 MINI cars a year when I visited in December.

The bicycle for the Greens was made in the far east, not by Raleigh UK but then they are probably going to move to the Netherlands too as they have said recently. Speculation.

Just my two pennorth, but there's some fact and data.

 

[davemercedes]

Frontstep, it's nice to see you posting what you see as good news... rather unfortunately the situation with the man in the street isn't anywhere near as rosy:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-consumersentiment-idUKKBN1AC3ET
UK consumer morale slips as economic mood hits four-year low - GfK

LONDON (Reuters) - British consumer morale has sunk back to depths hit just after last year's Brexit vote and worse may be to come as households' view of the broader economic situation dropped to a four-year low, according to a survey on Friday.

The bad news for me and those like me is that BOE officials will most likely want to keep interest rates on hold. So I still won't get any worthwhile benefit from my savings but for (mostly younger) people with mortgages, it means they won't get where it hurts.

 

[Yugguy]

Just packed the car for a car boot sale tomorrow but if it doesn't stop raining it won't happen.

I blame Brexit.

 

[Frontstep]

Marmi

OK... but the reason why it went into short supply was driven by price - due to the dollar.
- Which was and still is due to the Brexit vote (with all indicators suggesting more to come).
- No project fear there, just factual increase.

Marmite and the dollar hmm.

Frontstep, it's nice to see you posting what you see as good news... rather unfortunately the situation with the man in the street isn't anywhere near as rosy:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-consumersentiment-idUKKBN1AC3ET
UK consumer morale slips as economic mood hits four-year low - GfK

LONDON (Reuters) - British consumer morale has sunk back to depths hit just after last year's Brexit vote and worse may be to come as households' view of the broader economic situation dropped to a four-year low, according to a survey on Friday.

The bad news for me and those like me is that BOE officials will most likely want to keep interest rates on hold. So I still won't get any worthwhile benefit from my savings but for (mostly younger) people with mortgages, it means they won't get where it hurts.

How do you connect worldwide low rates with Brexit ?


*Europe 0.000 % 03-10-2016
United States 1.250 % 06-14-2017
Canada 0.750 % 07-12-2017
Great Britain 0.250 % 08-04-2016
Australia 1.500 % 08-02-2016
Brazil 9.250 % 07-26-2017
Russia 9.000 % 06-16-2017
Japan 0.000 % 02-01-2016


Theres always Brazil and Russia for your money.

*http://global-rates.com/

 

[PovertySpec]

Just packed the car for a car boot sale tomorrow but if it doesn't stop raining it won't happen.

I blame Brexit.

We haven't left yet, monsoons, typhoons and tsunamis.

 

[davemercedes]

The dollar has been performing badly and that has helped the pound, a little. Just think how much dearer our fuel prices would be otherwise.

Even so, diesel was down to 1.119 Apple of days ago but back up at 1.139 yesterday.
- Multiply that by the millions of litres we buy every day since the referendum vote to see what inflation of 2.9% is all about - and this is just one thing. Any bets for the rate by the end of they year sadly, I'm thinking it will hit 5%

 

[Yugguy]

Easy target to blame every economic issue on Brexit.