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Brexit

Discussion in 'Politics' started by prwales, Feb 19, 2016.

  1. davemercedes

    davemercedes Senior Member

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    Sorry, I don't think my question was very clear. The import costs are just half of it the other half is what goods and products do we have for export that they want and vice versa - want to import (at the right price) and to what sort of values? The worst case scenario is where we lose existing EU sales or don't want to purchase because of tariffs so what level of business can we reasonably anticipate (and please - not 'the sky's the limit!') and how soon can we get some flesh on the bone?
     
  2. Frontstep

    Frontstep Senior Member

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    What level tariffs do you think the EU want to impose on our exports to them ?
     
  3. davemercedes

    davemercedes Senior Member

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    Therein lies the problem - we don't know anything - because of the arrogant way our esteemed PM has run the "front end" of government - but any level of tariff is greater than we have now (doh!) and the EU have unsurprisingly sworn to ensure that we cannot get a better deal outside the EU than we had inside (no matter what Tony B Liar says). Still, we shall see in the next couple of weeks whether she can survive the latest shambolic cut-throat state of affairs.
    - Trouble is if she falls form whatever grace is left, we have Bumbling Boris or similar prats waiting in the wings...

    But we do need a very good deal so we can accumulate the costs of the divorce settlement that Forage, Boris etc conveniently forget to tell the electorate when they preached their "TAKE BACK CONTROL" (at £350M a week for the NHS) lie.
     
  4. Craiglxviii

    Craiglxviii Senior Member

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    So for that we need to study the goods marked with export criteria. I don't have that data to hand so will have to go digging for it.
     
  5. Xtractorfan

    Xtractorfan Senior Member

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    Putting that idiot in charge first day was the BIG mistake.
    Blair may have Fcuked up with Iraq, But this total half wit has single handledly wrecked the UK for the forseeable future
     
  6. Frontstep

    Frontstep Senior Member

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    Sorry I didn't make it clear, what level in percentage terms.

    1-2-5-10% ?
     
  7. davemercedes

    davemercedes Senior Member

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    Okay - my answer is exactly the same all these months down the line...:

    Therein lies the problem - we don't know anything - because of the arrogant way our esteemed PM has run the "front end" of government - but any level of tariff is greater than we have now (doh!) and the EU have unsurprisingly sworn to ensure that we cannot get a better deal outside the EU than we had inside (no matter what Tony B Liar says).

    To qualify the possibilities, there may be a flat rate or variables based on the individual tariff codes for each item the Brexquitteres never mentioned the cost of reintroducing all that either!). But it's still true that any tariff charge is greater than what we have today!
     
  8. Craiglxviii

    Craiglxviii Senior Member

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    Ok. Some data. All from MIT, in dollars US.

    U.K. Top exports:
    Gold $41.6b
    Cars $40.8b
    Pharma $19.9b
    Gas turbines $14.7b
    Refined petroleum $13.2b

    U.K. Top imports:
    Cars $49.9b
    Pharma $21b
    Refined petroleum $20.2b
    Crude petroleum $17.3b
    Vehicle parts $15b

    Top export destinations:
    USA $54.7b
    Germany $39.5b
    Switzerland $32.5b
    China $27.6b
    Netherlands $23.9b

    Top import origins:
    Germany $93.9b
    China $62.8b
    USA $44.8b
    Netherlands $44.4b
    France $37.6b
     
  9. LostKiwi

    LostKiwi Senior Member

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    Thats a huge import deficit amongst the top 5....
    $178.5b exports against $283.5b imports.
     
  10. davemercedes

    davemercedes Senior Member

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    Thanks, Craig. I didn't mean to lumber you with a task!

    It's difficult to "guesstimate" what deals with other countries are worth in contrast to known values within EU and the comments in the media about potential trade are pretty meaningless e.g.:

    Telegraph 18 Nov 16:
    "Donald Trump wants to do a huge trade deal with Britain next year – we should not turn him away"

    - So what's "huge" and in what industries/and does that mean buying or selling and what split if both?

    - The second half of the Telegraph comment is also concerning - the POTUSA is taking up our case for "huge trade" (whatever that may turn out to be, but given the reported state of the cabinet etc it could be our saving grace)... but meanwhile all our media is full of ongoing anti-Trump reports etc. Strange that at the same time, it seems okay to deal in arms to the Middle East etc with little or no comment... It could be nice to have things available in pounds/ounces and pints again though!

    . It's very interesting to see that NL sells them $44Bn - but they don't have a specific deal so far as I could see.
     
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  11. LostKiwi

    LostKiwi Senior Member

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    I think those are UK figures so its us the NL are selling into.
     
  12. Craiglxviii

    Craiglxviii Senior Member

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    Remember that I keep banging on about political worldviews? Well, remember that that of the Euros is order. Everything good comes from increasing the inherent order of a system, and only bad things come about by decreasing the order of a system. We can see this quite clearly in the Euro response to "no deal is better than a bad deal" because, to them, a bad deal increases order to a greater degree than no deal, thus it is preferable.

    Trump is a maximal realist (arguably he is THE Maximal Realist of our times) and to maximal realists, deals are all about gaining a benefit. Because trade is not a zero-sum game (most trade is mutually beneficial, whereas most politics is zero-sum) a focus on increasing trade between countries will help the economies of both (or more) involved; this brings increasing stability, prosperity and strength to the countries concerned. Remember America is the global Hegemon, so to bring big economies like ours further into the sphere of influence of the global hegemon further increases the global influence of the hegemon and its supporting allies while at the same time improving conditions between both countries by increasing trade. America showed this throughout the 60s and 70s with huge contributions to the economies of Germany, Italy, France and sundry smaller nations (how good a deal do you think that Germany & Italy got on their F-104 Starfighters, for instance... or the cash sums given to Germany to develop its social welfare reforms?) to bolster the defences against the tide of Communism across a broad range of fronts. Looking at how Trump operates, if he perceives that Britain being further into the American sphere of influence will result in a better condition for America then he will offer whatever it takes, in the context of that deal, to get the deal. If it means that a significantly increased trade offer with the UK, and that trade offer is on terms that benefit at least us, then it is logical for him to make that offer.

    So the question now becomes, what is it that we import from Germany< France & the Netherlands that we cannot import from the USA? Well, $176.3b of main EU imports total and $50b of cars total, so let's assume that $25b are German cars of all types. That leaves $150b of imports to replace. Both VW and BMW have US plants so it's not inconceivable that we could replace German-built cars with their American-built cousins. $37b of petroleum products... and the US is turning on oils sands & shales production at an ever-increasing rate. $113b now; we can swap our gas turbines for American auto parts. And so on.

    The key issue is one of sequencing here, what do we have to offer that our new customers want, and what can we buy off them in return? Bearing in mind we have the boss of the world's biggest economy willing to do a deal that will benefit both of us in several different ways... but our meeja is too stupid not to see that... I'd say we should be looking to our traditional ally.
     
  13. Craiglxviii

    Craiglxviii Senior Member

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    That is correct, NL imports into the UK.
     
  14. davemercedes

    davemercedes Senior Member

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    I agree with you and I think USA is not only traditional but is frankly still a "natural" ally. But I do find the comparison with Middle Eastern countries who buy arms and sell us oil, but hardly get a mention just shows the stupidity of our media-driven likes and dislikes. Looking back over the years towards USA, I think everyone suspected Nixon wasn't exactly "straight" etc even before the Watergate scandal but if he had offered a massive trade deal to UK we would have snatched his hand off!

    I just hope the overgrown children in May's cabinet start behaving like representatives of the people - soon (just look at the quotes of her telling them to behave today!) and frankly if they don't I think I'd now rather have a general election again even if it put Corbyn into No 10!
     
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  15. AMGeed

    AMGeed Senior Member

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    Despite the terrible job May and her cabinet are doing currently it would be financial suicide to elect Corbyn and his cronies.
    Cutting off your nose to spite your face comes to mind.
     
  16. davemercedes

    davemercedes Senior Member

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    Hmm
    You mean it's not financial suicide continuing as we are?

    We just know that Corbyn would work out costing us more do we? Just like we all knew they (Labour) would get a drubbing in the election and we all knew that May would have a massive ill-gotten majority (I certainly did). And even though I (think) I've worked that Corbyn's numbers were swung by the young and angry voter I now begin to wonder quite frankly if he would actually do too bad if he did get the job. At the moment we don't know what Brexit is going to cost i.e.: the divorce settlement, our purchasing costs, our export sales and then all the hidden bits that every politician carefully avoided mentioning... And then you only have to look at their backbiting disarray to know we are sleepwalking through a sh1* and a shambles.

    - And frankly even ignoring the nutters like Bumbling Boris, I don't think I would trust what any of the ruling party says.
    I certainly don't think for three seconds that Mayhem is doing what she is doing for the good of the country. That's not the reason she did the "bung" deal with the DUP - now that certainly had sweet FA to do with the will of the people!
     
  17. Frontstep

    Frontstep Senior Member

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    The problem is Corbyn is anti EU through and through.

    His recent speeches defy a lifetime of voting against anything EU something like his CND flip flopping.
     
  18. Craiglxviii

    Craiglxviii Senior Member

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    We just know that Corbin will end up costing us more?

    Hmm.

    We DO know that he is a physical and moral coward who has been anti establishment his entire political life; we do know that he has directly and indirectly supported both terrorists and the Queen's enemies through speeches and other actions in the House; we do know that he does not see the primary aim of government as the ultimate defence of the realm.

    So yeah. He would end up costing us MUCH more.
     
  19. davemercedes

    davemercedes Senior Member

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    - He'll be up for a knighthood soon, then.
     
  20. davemercedes

    davemercedes Senior Member

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    We just can't win on currency...

    I've mentioned before that I still get a regular "currency news" email from times gone by and today the news is that sterling plunged due to the surprising dip in inflation which in turn makes the likelihood of a hike in the BoE Rate less likely and therefore less attractive to investors! A bit crazy that lower inflation made the currency less attractive but it's the way that game works.

    So we lost a cent against the Euro, the US$ made no gain because of their own problems but we lost half a cent against the CDN$, 3 Cents against the Aus$ (3 month low) and half a cent against NZ. It's wryly amusing that the fall in inflation was mainly driven by better fuel costs in the first place - simply because it's priced in dollars.
     

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