Brexit

[davemercedes]

Hold on and think about it... and if you have better answers let's have them: -

• The pound fell like a stone the day after the Brexit vote.
• The pound has still not recovered and is running at around 20 percent less than before the vote.
• That sums up the worldwide opinion of UK commercial strength
  • Fuel - Petrol/Diesel etc is priced in US-dollars
  • Since the pound fell as above, fuel costs more although we had a small respite because the dollar has been hit (but not enough to bring us back to where we were).

• Falls in the £ have been almost as bad overall against the Eurozone. Friday 21 July - Cardiff airport (yes, I know it's the worst place to change money!): But in any case the rate offered may be the worst ever foreign exchange rates at British airports – in one case, just 88 euro cents for a pound.

• "Wise men" have posted back to me that currencies go up and down all the time.
  • The up side sure is a long time coming!
• Then they say export companies are doing very well (and we're all supposed to be happy while subsiding them!).
  • But unfortunately it's not true:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-idUKKBN19O0CR​

• British factories were left out of a demand-driven surge in activity across much of Asia and Europe in June, as weakness isterling failed to translate into export growth, surveys showed.
• But factories in the euro zone rounded off the first half of 2017 by ramping up at their fastest rate for over six years...
• But British manufacturing grew more slowly than anyone polled by Reuters expected as consumers faced the double-hit of accelerating inflation - caused in large part by the fall in the pound since last year's vote to leave the EU - and slowing wage growth.
• Meanwhile we have inflation now at 2.9% with rising prices becoming our new "feature" despite the efforts to hide it under the "pay more, get less" trick of "shrinkflation" (recently tracked down to 2500 items!

> Yes. It's easy. Unfortunately the truth hurts.

 

[Yugguy]

No, you are blinkered, you want to find fault and so you will.

 

[davemercedes]

No, you are blinkered, you want to find fault and so you will.

Physician heal thyself - this is happening.
Perhaps you should have gone to Specsavers if you can't see the truth!

 

[Yugguy]

I might need to soon, or Boots at least, I'm starting to notice the need for reading glasses.

 

[Frontstep]

Its difficult when you have a rigid mindset to accept facts that don't accord with your narrow view.
As I pointed out above everything isn't rosy especially for some retailers but we need to remember everything was not perfect before the referendum and hasn't been good since the Banking crash.
Brexit hasn't happened yet so we all have some waiting to do perhaps many years before we get a clear view.
Currency markets ups and downs have been with us since the dawn of time.
Shrinkflation has been blamed on our Brexit vote, low interest rates,some even attributed Marmite gate to it !!!!

 

[LostKiwi]

Its difficult when you have a rigid mindset to accept facts that don't accord with your narrow view.

Says the pot to the kettle!

Currency fluctuations do occur and are normal but when you see Sterling in a slide against every major currency that's not normal (and especially when our great enemy the EU are not slipping in the same way).

Add to that the rise in manufacturing of the EU whilst in spite of the weak pound the UK falls and it's not a good picture.

The points Dave highlights are valid. It's no fantasy future, it's already here and happening, and as you rightly point out we haven't left yet....

I think I can be justifiably concerned about what happens after we leave given the global reaction to the 'promise' we'll leave.

 

[keith100]

"The What"

I occasionally follow this lively political thread (what happened to the welsh wizard?)

I thought you may enjoy this New Yorker article A UK cousin says it's probabley the most insightful analysis he has read!

http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-book-of-jeremy-corbyn?mbid=social_twitter

Cheers

 

[Yugguy]

We all suffer from confirmation bias. I can freely admit I do.

All I can say is that from a purely personal viewpoint I really haven't noticed anything different between now and before the vote.

That said, both me and my wife work in areas that aren't massively affected by Brexit and my daughter is young enough that things will have settled by the time she reaches work age.

I do understand though that for others it could be completely different.

 

[davemercedes]

One good thing that has happened is even recently, Donald Trump has reinforced his wish to see UK enjoying a good trade deal with USA which he said "could be very big". The total worth of any such deal is certainly a lot less than the EU today but it will hopefully make a huge difference to the shape of things to come.

So what really needs to happen in the meantime is for our media to at the very least tone down the anti waffle against the elected leader of our strongest ally. There are a lot of cynical views that place the media in the pocket of government - if that's really true is it possible that nobody has whispered that they should lay off?
- Nobody needs to like him but we sure as heck need him at present!

I find the sheer hypocrisy of the way we sell gazillions-worth of arms etc to the Middle East but their leaders by comparison receive hardly any negative press here even though they are "absolute" rulers.

 

[Craiglxviii]

One good thing that has happened is even recently, Donald Trump has reinforced his wish to see UK enjoying a good trade deal with USA which he said "could be very big". The total worth of any such deal is certainly a lot less than the EU today but it will hopefully make a huge difference to the shape of things to come.

So what really needs to happen in the meantime is for our media to at the very least tone down the anti waffle against the elected leader of our strongest ally. There are a lot of cynical views that place the media in the pocket of government - if that's really true is it possible that nobody has whispered that they should lay off?
- Nobody needs to like him but we sure as heck need him at present!

I find the sheer hypocrisy of the way we sell gazillions-worth of arms etc to the Middle East but their leaders by comparison receive hardly any negative press here even though they are "absolute" rulers.

Been saying this since he was elected Dave...

 

[davemercedes]

Been saying this since he was elected Dave...

Well, they're not listening...

 

[Frontstep]

The media et al haven't toned down the anti-waffle against our own elected leader or the referendum election result, so why would they want to lay off the leader of the USA ?
Trump emetic the amateur beat a well resourced highly experienced politician the state of politics was so bad in the US.
A bunch of amateurs and its maverick leader led the UK out of the EU despite many institutions railing against them, the parallels are there.

 

[LostKiwi]

The media et al haven't toned down the anti-waffle against our own elected leader or the referendum election result, so why would they want to lay off the leader of the USA ?
Trump emetic the amateur beat a well resourced highly experienced politician the state of politics was so bad in the US.
A bunch of amateurs and its maverick leader led the UK out of the EU despite many institutions railing against them, the parallels are there.

Ah... protest votes then...

 

[Frontstep]

Some definitely.

 

[davemercedes]

But like it or lump it, unfortunately Brexit is a fait accomplit unless the likes of Cable or BLiar etc hold any sway which is unlikely. So also, liking it or lumping it, we need Trump to continue "liking" UK. Without that support those in USA who would prefer to take over any of our current business (and there have been financiers urging that), could come out on top which would be more - painful than it's going to be anyway. I'm not saying we should kow tow but if it's okay to keep quiet about the powers that be to whom we sell gazillions of weapons to the Middle East then it ought to be all right to keep quiet in order to get a trade deal.

I also think the anti waffle against our own leader is more justified - not just because I agree - but our press should be able to accurately report what's going on in our own country and/or with the Brexit process which is not exactly "motivating" in the hope that something - anything might happen to improve it.

 

[LostKiwi]

So also, liking it or lumping it, we need Trump to continue "liking" UK.

He'll probably change his mind 10 days later....

 

[davemercedes]

He'll probably change his mind 10 days later....

Yes, there's always that but he likes it because of his mother and of course the pomp and circumstance he's looking forward to...

Mind you atm he's doing good for us because the dollar is still shrinking Mind you that could mean even more pain in the wallet when it climbs back up again!

 

[Craiglxviii]

He'll probably change his mind 10 days later....

I doubt it. Maximal Realist remember. The Hegemon stays where it is by crushing all opposition, and at the same time using its influence to maximise the advance of its supporters. That means that the Hegemon's support of its supporters is also of top importance.

Guess who the US' top supporter is?

 

[Naraic]

Its difficult when you have a rigid mindset to accept facts that don't accord with your narrow view.
As I pointed out above everything isn't rosy especially for some retailers but we need to remember everything was not perfect before the referendum and hasn't been good since the Banking crash.
Brexit hasn't happened yet so we all have some waiting to do perhaps many years before we get a clear view.
Currency markets ups and downs have been with us since the dawn of time.
Shrinkflation has been blamed on our Brexit vote, low interest rates,some even attributed Marmite gate to it !!!!

You keep saying "wait"...but what if we wait and you are wrong, what will you say then? Is it not possible to discuss this without the brexiters getting on their high horses and calling the rest of us...moaners?

 

[keefysher]

You keep saying "wait"...but what if we wait and you are wrong, what will you say then? Is it not possible to discuss this without the brexiters getting on their high horses and calling the rest of us...remoaners?

FTFY