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Yugguy

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Pass me the 12-bore, I can't take it any more!

:confused::confused:

:)
 

LostKiwi

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Frankly I don't see it as anything special.
Both sides know they are running out of time to start trade negotiations (more on this in a minute).
The EU is insisting on settling the outstanding commitments before it agrees to a trade discussion. Can't blame them for that - its good negotiating tactics. If they don't like the divorce payment then they'll try to recoup through the trade deals.
The longer Mrs May delays that discussion the less time there is to negotiate a trade deal before the two year period is up.
The EU have repeatedly said they need to get a move on and Mrs May has finally agreed that yes they do (so its time she did it!).

On the subject of trade the UK is an adjunct of the EU at present in WTO terms. That means that when we come out of the EU we no longer have any trade agreements with any of the countries the EU negotiated with on our behalf as part of the EU....
So from day 1 thats 50 new trade agreements required (plus the EU - which will hopefully have been negotiated up front).
So if we come out with 'No deal' thats going to be pretty rough.

Yes trade will continue but unlike that idiot Sir John Redwood on ITV this morning I don't believe that simply giving tax breaks to citizens for imported items (yeah right - reducing taxes???) will be overall cost neutral to the UK.

If our goods become more expensive to foreign importers they will source them from elsewhere (if possible). The only way to negate that is to either negotiate free trade (so we have what we have currently) or reduce our manufacturing costs, probably at the expense of jobs and/or salaries. Either way its going to be a tough time if we don't get free trade with the EU (as they are our biggest export market).

There was also an analysis done on the effects of a no deal on the average household. As 48% of our food is imported we would almost certainly end up with higher costs for food. The study reported this morning suggested each household would end up between £260 - £500 worse off per year. Personally I would have thought it a bit higher than that but we'll go with that for the moment.

There are 4.6 million people in the UK in 'persistent poverty' - i.e earning below the poverty threshold of £12,567 per annum. For those people any increase of even £260 pa will be significant.

TM has spoken many times about JAMs - those who are just about managing. If she is serious about helping the JAMs she needs to pull finger and sort out a deal with the EU quickly. The only other option for her would be to subsidise them with benefits (they are already below the tax threshold). That means more taxes for the rest of us or (the more likely scenario) no tax cuts to offset costs incurred by tariffs (essentially the government keeps the money gained by imposing tariffs). Either way the government wins and the working folk in the UK get shafted again.

Nice analysis as to what a 'no deal' Brexit means for farmers here too.
https://ahdb.org.uk/brexit/documents/BeefandLamb_bitesize.pdf

I'm not surprised Dave is feeling pessimistic. It doesn't take much analysis to come up with many of the same concerns he's voiced.

This isn't about pessimism - its about thinking about what is happening and from the information we have to hand drawing our own conclusions instead of simply burying our heads in the sand and thinking it will all be wonderful.
 

Yugguy

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simply burying our heads in the sand and thinking it will all be wonderful.

I'm not. I just refuse to see everything as bad. Doing that is the same head-burying as thinking everything is great.

That said I am still reeling from a trip to Leamington on Sunday during which we bought 32 quids worth of cheese from France. Including one infused with truffle oil that was quite amazing.

I was trying to work out if Brexit would make it cheaper or not.

Then I realised I couldn't really afford it either way. :p

The truffle oil cheese is going into a chicken and asparagus risotto tonight. :D
 

LostKiwi

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I'm not. I just refuse to see everything as bad. Doing that is the same head-burying as thinking everything is great.

That said I am still reeling from a trip to Leamington on Sunday during which we bought 32 quids worth of cheese from France. Including one infused with truffle oil that was quite amazing.

I was trying to work out if Brexit would make it cheaper or not.

Then I realised I couldn't really afford it either way. :p

The truffle oil cheese is going into a chicken and asparagus risotto tonight. :D

Sorry Yug - wasn't meaning you about burying head in the sand...

Brexit (with no deal) will make french cheese dearer (around 48% - the tariff).
Brexit with a free trade deal will make it the same (aside from currency variations)
 

keefysher

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Sorry Yug - wasn't meaning you about burying head in the sand...

Brexit (with no deal) will make french cheese dearer (around 48% - the tariff).
Brexit with a free trade deal will make it the same (aside from currency variations)

Which then makes it harder for the French to sell their cheese here. Ditto wine, cars for all the remaining EU countries. Going the other way will see UK goods taxed too. Hence why there will be a deal.

It's all about willy waving at the moment, those with most to lose, the unelected eurocrats at the EU Commission are waving the wildest now, but we all know what happens when you wave it about too furiously.

There are more British cheeses than French, so I'll spend my money exploring those far beyond the bollox of Brussels have been and gone.
 

Yugguy

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Sorry Yug - wasn't meaning you about burying head in the sand...

Brexit (with no deal) will make french cheese dearer (around 48% - the tariff).
Brexit with a free trade deal will make it the same (aside from currency variations)


No worries :D

48%, strewth. I'd better make this stuff last.

Like a lot of things you need to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. I choose to hope that a deal will be struck as frankly everyone wants to keep on selling and making money. I'm not blind to the fact that it might all collapse but I don't think it will.
 

LostKiwi

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those with most to lose, the unelected eurocrats at the EU Commission are waving the wildest now,
I still don't get this. We are hugely dependent on them (they are our largest trading partner (44% of our exports). They are nowhere near as dependent on us (we only import 16% of their exports).
I'd much rather **** off 16% of my customers than 44% !
 

keefysher

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I still don't get this. We are hugely dependent on them (they are our largest trading partner (44% of our exports). They are nowhere near as dependent on us (we only import 16% of their exports).
I'd much rather **** off 16% of my customers than 44% !

Once the dust has settled, the EU will reform and the unelected eurocrats will have most to lose. Project Europe will take a different form. Needs must. Its evolution, or nothing stays the same.

No one knows with who and at what scale future trade will be. We trade as we currently do due to the handcuffs we are wearing tied to the EU. Ever has been the case and ever will be. How did the factory of the world come to be over the recent past? When will black Africa come to prominence? How did the Commonwealth deal with the UK dumping on them in the original Common Market thing?

There is no point getting hung up on every twist and turn in the pantomime currently being played out in the media.

I'd much rather advance and develop new markets and exploit the opportunities that will be forthcoming than worry over what the EU does after we leave. Exemplar my living memory and that of my parents. She was brought up in WWII, with rationing and evacuation. My late father spent his life across the world developing stuff that keeps us safe and creates energy and wealth across the world. My working life has seen less than 1% in the EU, 68% across the world, the rest in the UK in value and time terms. All for UK owned businesses. Opportunity awaits.
 

dry run

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I'd much rather **** off 16% of my customers than 44% !

I get what you're saying LK, but what if keeping that 44% of your customers was stopping you finding new and potentially better customers? What if that 44% expected you to pay for them to be customers? What if those 44% wanted to be able to control other parts of your business reagrdless of what you want? Then maybe you might make the decision that you are bertter off without them!
 

LostKiwi

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I get what you're saying LK, but what if keeping that 44% of your customers was stopping you finding new and potentially better customers? What if that 44% expected you to pay for them to be customers? What if those 44% wanted to be able to control other parts of your business reagrdless of what you want? Then maybe you might make the decision that you are bertter off without them!
I get that you want 'local' control over your destiny but then carry that down a step further. You're based in Hampshire so why should you accept Westminster determining how much tax you pay and where its spent? Why not secede and become the independent nation of Hampshire? I know it sounds ridiculous but its actually just an extension of Britain/EU is it not? You could argue about cultural identity but how does that work with the Welsh, Scots or Cornish who also are governed by Westminster? I seem to recall a lot of opposition to the Scots seeking a referendum to leave the Union but is that not just granting them the same rights as the UK has just exercised in having a referendum to leave the EU?
It does seem the whole independence from the EU thing is applied when it suits but the same concept isn't allowed to be applied to constituent parts of the UK. Is that not double standards at best?

We accept Westminister's control on the basis that they give us a stronger place in the world and are tasked to look after our interests and work to the common benefit. The EU is tasked to do exactly the same. The arguments about them not looking after our best interests can equally apply to Westminister. You only have to look at the huge disparity between North and South East.
 

Craiglxviii

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WRT Scotland, no it is not. There was both a Union of Government and a Union of the Crowns. So Scotland and England share both Head of State and Head of Government, and have their own regional government. With the EU we share neither HoS or HoG.
 

LostKiwi

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With the EU we share neither HoS or HoG.
So a bit like the Commonwealth then.
NZ shares the Queen as HoS but has no commonality with the UK government (not even the same parliamentary system).
 

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While everyone's feeling so positive, the news this morning is that UK inflation at highest since April 2012.
Strange really that as most people, (especially youngsters and the poorly paid) are really feeling the pinch, the consumer price index data is seen to point towards further price pressures, so according to Carney at the BOE we will need higher interest rates.

I've said before that that would suit me quite well but as it will hurt mortgage payers including my children I would rather it didn't happen.
 

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Frankly I don't see it as anything special.
Both sides know they are running out of time to start trade negotiations (more on this in a minute).
The EU is insisting on settling the outstanding commitments before it agrees to a trade discussion. Can't blame them for that - its good negotiating tactics. If they don't like the divorce payment then they'll try to recoup through the trade deals.
The longer Mrs May delays that discussion the less time there is to negotiate a trade deal before the two year period is up.
The EU have repeatedly said they need to get a move on and Mrs May has finally agreed that yes they do (so its time she did it!).

On the subject of trade the UK is an adjunct of the EU at present in WTO terms. That means that when we come out of the EU we no longer have any trade agreements with any of the countries the EU negotiated with on our behalf as part of the EU....
So from day 1 thats 50 new trade agreements required (plus the EU - which will hopefully have been negotiated up front).
So if we come out with 'No deal' thats going to be pretty rough.

Yes trade will continue but unlike that idiot Sir John Redwood on ITV this morning I don't believe that simply giving tax breaks to citizens for imported items (yeah right - reducing taxes???) will be overall cost neutral to the UK.

If our goods become more expensive to foreign importers they will source them from elsewhere (if possible). The only way to negate that is to either negotiate free trade (so we have what we have currently) or reduce our manufacturing costs, probably at the expense of jobs and/or salaries. Either way its going to be a tough time if we don't get free trade with the EU (as they are our biggest export market).

There was also an analysis done on the effects of a no deal on the average household. As 48% of our food is imported we would almost certainly end up with higher costs for food. The study reported this morning suggested each household would end up between £260 - £500 worse off per year. Personally I would have thought it a bit higher than that but we'll go with that for the moment.

There are 4.6 million people in the UK in 'persistent poverty' - i.e earning below the poverty threshold of £12,567 per annum. For those people any increase of even £260 pa will be significant.

TM has spoken many times about JAMs - those who are just about managing. If she is serious about helping the JAMs she needs to pull finger and sort out a deal with the EU quickly. The only other option for her would be to subsidise them with benefits (they are already below the tax threshold). That means more taxes for the rest of us or (the more likely scenario) no tax cuts to offset costs incurred by tariffs (essentially the government keeps the money gained by imposing tariffs). Either way the government wins and the working folk in the UK get shafted again.

Nice analysis as to what a 'no deal' Brexit means for farmers here too.
https://ahdb.org.uk/brexit/documents/BeefandLamb_bitesize.pdf

I'm not surprised Dave is feeling pessimistic. It doesn't take much analysis to come up with many of the same concerns he's voiced.

This isn't about pessimism - its about thinking about what is happening and from the information we have to hand drawing our own conclusions instead of simply burying our heads in the sand and thinking it will all be wonderful.

I agree with your comments, and I posted an article that in all likelihood nobody bothered to read (because it wasn't all singing and dancing "positive") from Reuters before last night's meeting which reported that Germany and France had made representation to forbid Barnier moving from those initial requirements without settlement. Yes, the two countries everyone kept saying they wouldn't dare because they want to sell their Audis etc. I still don't get why settlement on the money due cannot be agreed "subject to audit" - Davis gives the impression there is no support for any claim? And surely the second subject - i.e.: ongoing conditions for EU and UK citizens is important both ways?

Yes, I'm pessimistic but perhaps I might not be as much if our representatives did something positive! You only have to look at the way new projects are surprisingly shaking the mystical money tree already so stand by and wait for further diversions.
 
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Yugguy

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and I posted an article that in all likelihood nobody bothered to read (because it wasn't all singing and dancing "positive") .

Do you actually read any of the posts?

"Like a lot of things you need to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. I choose to hope that a deal will be struck as frankly everyone wants to keep on selling and making money. I'm not blind to the fact that it might all collapse but I don't think it will."

My view that it is not all negative does NOT mean I think it is all positive.
 

davemercedes

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Find me one posting where I said that it was PROOF. (I didn't).

But in any case, so what? The FACT is that the pound has been hammered as a result of currency speculators eying the Brexit vote so it buys less and we have to pay more - all of us from shoppers to exporters buying raw materials. And along the way our credit rating has been being sent downwards - twice so whatever we borrow to fill up the magic money tree branches costs more. So any change in the other direction would be good news. Well it would if it lasts.

You still haven't sent me any posting where I said this. The problem is I only post the truth about Brexit.
 

davemercedes

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You regularly condemn the dull Ms May as a turncoat so should all remoaners remain firmly against leaving the EU ?

No - and we know that there are people hanging in there even though they campaigned and presumably voted to remain (e.g.: Amber Rudd). But (one of the many) reasons Mayhem gets up my nose is the hypocrisy that goes with it. A few months ago I posted a list of her speeches as a pro-remainer along with the same comments twisted around to be pro Brexit. If she had ever said my opinion was X and now it's Y it might be acceptable but as it stands, imo it's pure self interest.
 
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