Diesels

[Kirbs]

Good morning everyone I trust all is good

I think I have read and heard far too much about the future of diesels,some scary stuff and some "its not as bad as they say " but need to sell newspapers

My W211 2009 was intended to be a long term thing and show it as a classic in 11 years time ,I know its going to drop in value but as its only £7000 today not really worries but should I now change my plan

A. Sell it now to get the Max and avoid some horrible stuff down the line £2.00 diesel double tax etc

B. Stick to original plan but don't bother with service, get my mate Boyd to change the oil every now and then

C.Other

Any brief guidance would be most welcome especially if you have taken action on similar car

Have a good August

Paul

 

[Craiglxviii]

Do you plan on running your diesel car in London, or driving it around the city centres of the other 26 odd Clean Air Zones?

What is the cost per mile difference between it and its petrol counterpart to run?

Everything at the moment is speculation until the budget changes are announced...

 

[Kirbs]

Do you plan on running your diesel car in London, or driving it around the city centres of the other 26 odd Clean Air Zones?

What is the cost per mile difference between it and its petrol counterpart to run?

Everything at the moment is speculation until the budget changes are announced...

Thanks

No city visits planned,think it might be best to sell

Thanks

 

[Westheath]

Don't worry by 2040 electric car production will be in full swing from all main manufacturers, all oil based combustion engines will be obsolete/banned.

https://electrek.co/2017/07/25/uk-banning-new-petrol-diesel-cars-2040-all-electric/

 

[Mr Filipov]

Stick with the car. They can't make all diesels disappear overnight. Saying all combustion cars gone and banned by 204 is also bullshit. Reason being, you simply cannot put enough range in an affordable battery powered car, nor can you charge it as fast as you can fill up.
Further to that, the cost per mile is not too dissimilar either. Depending on electricity rate after all. As popularity grows, so will the cost of electricity. The grid can't handle cars being charged too. It can barely handle usage as it is now. Expansion of the grid, further cost increases.
Range of the cars. An affordable mid range ev will cover just over 100 miles, call it 150 if you want to be generous. Now with an average diesel covering 400-500 on a single tank woth 5 minutes refill, where does it all fit in? Can't recharge in 5 minutes, can tell you that for free. Nor will you be able to in 2040.
None of this is feasible. What about busses, lorries etc?

 

[Mr Filipov]

Don't worry by 2040 electric car production will be in full swing from all main manufacturers, all oil based combustion engines will be obsolete/banned.

https://electrek.co/2017/07/25/uk-banning-new-petrol-diesel-cars-2040-all-electric/

It states about costs of batteries. Does it state anything about range and charge times? It's not going to happen. Given the space in a car and the weight of batteries, there is only so much you can do.

 

[Lord_Lucan]

Stick with the car. They can't make all diesels disappear overnight. Saying all combustion cars gone and banned by 204 is also bullshit. Reason being, you simply cannot put enough range in an affordable battery powered car, nor can you charge it as fast as you can fill up.
Further to that, the cost per mile is not too dissimilar either. Depending on electricity rate after all. As popularity grows, so will the cost of electricity. The grid can't handle cars being charged too. It can barely handle usage as it is now. Expansion of the grid, further cost increases.
Range of the cars. An affordable mid range ev will cover just over 100 miles, call it 150 if you want to be generous. Now with an average diesel covering 400-500 on a single tank woth 5 minutes refill, where does it all fit in? Can't recharge in 5 minutes, can tell you that for free. Nor will you be able to in 2040.
None of this is feasible. What about busses, lorries etc?

Some valid points but the Nissan Leaf does claim to allow a 80% fast charge in 30 minutes does it not? If this is true and I'm not saying it is then by 2040 at this rate of improvement it would be plausible no?

To the OP: I'd say keep it: They're not about to outlaw them overnight. Personally with the mileage I do per year and the remote locations I go to and from I'd probably even keep running mine as they get more expensive

 

[JBell]

I think they are after the EU 1-4 rated cars mainly, they are high polluters of NoX

 

[A.J.]

Good morning everyone I trust all is good

I think I have read and heard far too much about the future of diesels,some scary stuff and some "its not as bad as they say " but need to sell newspapers

My W211 2009 was intended to be a long term thing and show it as a classic in 11 years time ,I know its going to drop in value but as its only £7000 today not really worries but should I now change my plan

A. Sell it now to get the Max and avoid some horrible stuff down the line £2.00 diesel double tax etc

B. Stick to original plan but don't bother with service, get my mate Boyd to change the oil every now and then

C.Other

Any brief guidance would be most welcome especially if you have taken action on similar car

Have a good August

Paul

I changed mine to a Petrol a couple of months ago because I new this was coming. I am not sure I did the right thing now because they are including Petrol engines in this debacle now. I don't think that electric is the way forward with this because although at the point of use it is obviously clean but what about the generation of it ?.

I understand that the national grid is struggling already with the demand and I can't see any new power stations being built, apart from the upgrade at Sizewell. That coupled with the lack of charging points and a pretty useless range electric certainly isn't for me. Anyway 2040 is a long way off and I am sure I won't be here anyway.

 

[Yugguy]

I had planned to keep my diesel til around 2025 and I see no reason not to at the moment. I'll keep it maintained for my own peace of mind. I never expected it to be worth much by then anyway so I'm not worried about future value.

 

[LostKiwi]

It states about costs of batteries. Does it state anything about range and charge times? It's not going to happen. Given the space in a car and the weight of batteries, there is only so much you can do.

You aren't allowing for technology advancements.
Batteries have come on tremendously in the past 20 years (and thats what we're talking about here).
Every objection to electric cars can be overcome with sufficient investment and technology.
City center charging: Inductive loops in roadway, roadside charging stations
Range: Development of high energy density cells (what we have currently isn't leading edge), Inductive loops in roadways to charge as you drive (will see these as toll roads I'd imagine).
Charging speed: Supercapacitor technology to rapidly charge the vehicle either as a secondary store to then charge batteries/act as a range extender or as a sole energy store.
Performance: Already knocks combustion engines into a cocked hat!

Until there is the impetus to do something motor manufacturers won't by choice change their existing formula rapidly. Now there is a clear need so expect far more development in this field.

Electric cars first appeared in 1884 and were popular in the late 19th century but the combustion engine killed off development as they were cheaper to produce at the time and had a higher energy density (range) but it took the electric starter on combustion engines to make that happen!

I know a few people that have electric cars and not one of them has said they would go back to an ICE powered car.

 

[LostKiwi]

Even after 2040 they aren't banning ICE cars - they're only banning sales of new ICE cars.

 

[davemercedes]

Have you noticed how the government are keeping very quiet about their proposals for a scrappage scheme now?

 

[Kirbs]

I get the electric argument ,Im thinking about the next 3 years, will they double road tax and put 30p on a litre ,thats the sort of thing that will cheese me off the most.

 

[Kirbs]

Have you noticed how the government are keeping very quiet about their proposals for a scrappage scheme now?

Yes you have to hunt it down in the press rather than before when it was in their interests!

 

[LostKiwi]

I get the electric argument ,Im thinking about the next 3 years, will they double road tax and put 30p on a litre ,thats the sort of thing that will cheese me off the most.

Doing something like that when there is no viable alternative would be an election loser. I strongly doubt it.
We will be far more likely to see punitive charges for going into certain areas - much like the current LEZ.

 

[A.J.]

I had planned to keep my diesel til around 2025 and I see no reason not to at the moment. I'll keep it maintained for my own peace of mind. I never expected it to be worth much by then anyway so I'm not worried about future value.

Would the potential dramatic price increase in Diesel fuel persuade you differently ??

 

[JBell]

I get the electric argument ,Im thinking about the next 3 years, will they double road tax and put 30p on a litre ,thats the sort of thing that will cheese me off the most.

Labour didn't win so I think we are OK for now

 

[Mr Filipov]

You aren't allowing for technology advancements.
Batteries have come on tremendously in the past 20 years (and thats what we're talking about here).
Every objection to electric cars can be overcome with sufficient investment and technology.
City center charging: Inductive loops in roadway, roadside charging stations
Range: Development of high energy density cells (what we have currently isn't leading edge), Inductive loops in roadways to charge as you drive (will see these as toll roads I'd imagine).
Charging speed: Supercapacitor technology to rapidly charge the vehicle either as a secondary store to then charge batteries/act as a range extender or as a sole energy store.
Performance: Already knocks combustion engines into a cocked hat!

Until there is the impetus to do something motor manufacturers won't by choice change their existing formula rapidly. Now there is a clear need so expect far more development in this field.

Electric cars first appeared in 1884 and were popular in the late 19th century but the combustion engine killed off development as they were cheaper to produce at the time and had a higher energy density (range) but it took the electric starter on combustion engines to make that happen!

I know a few people that have electric cars and not one of them has said they would go back to an ICE powered car.

All that new tech will just increase the costs. If the currently old tech makes cars more expensive outright now, how is all that new cutting edge stuff going to help? It will come at a price of course. It is not viable for the majority. Fine for the rich £100k and more a year.

You are talking developments, but all that comes at a cost to the consumer. If it were a good option it would be in cars right now.

 

[LostKiwi]

All that new tech will just increase the costs. If the currently old tech makes cars more expensive outright now, how is all that new cutting edge stuff going to help? It will come at a price of course. It is not viable for the majority. Fine for the rich £100k and more a year.

You are talking developments, but all that comes at a cost to the consumer. If it were a good option it would be in cars right now.

Economy of scale brings the price down. As production ramps up price falls. At the moment production is fairly low volume.
Look at the price of large flat screen TVs for example.
You used to pay £3k for a 60" flat screen 4k TV. Now you can get them for £800.

The point about developments is exactly that - they are developments and not yet for for production because of cost or because the technology is immature.

We're talking 23 years away. Look at the difference between an R129 and the latest SL range. They are a world apart and the price in real terms of the new one is lower.