Longevety

[L John]

How old will each model of our cars be (assuming no government goal post moves) before they're only fit for parts.

As a guide lets take that time as being when only 50% of that model are estimated to be left on the road.

Will the higher priced classes be on the road for longer than cheaper classes?
Will performance variants last longer than their lower powered versions in the same class?

 

[Yugguy]

I wonder about this and hybrids.

There are a lot of people who have to drive cheap cars, and diesels last forever, often with minimal maintenance. Will a complex hybrid last to 200k on rare servicing?

 

[turbopete]

There are a lot of people who have to drive cheap cars, and diesels last forever

that is a common misconception. the mechanicals WILL last pretty much forever. its whats ATTACHED to them that is the likely killer of such cars now. for example, lets go back a few years. once a diesel engine was running (lets say a Ford 1.6/1.8diesel which was still common around my neck of the woods in the early 90s) as long as the air intake and exhaust were kept clear of water, ive seen them running through floods (for short distances)with water at headlight level (and IN the headlights)
my car is, essentially, the new equivalent. I would say anything that reaches the exhaust level height wise could possibly give issues. headlight height would stop the car because the electrics would go haywire. and I do think its the electrics that will kill off most cars, as they are now as the parts are more expensive for the end user to buy, require programming in some cases, etc.

as for which will say or go, I think AMGs will be kept, and very basic (think no auto box) models COULD be collectible in the future as theyre more rare and, as things head progressively more autonomous, will be MORE desirable. a reminder of how things once WERE.

 

[LostKiwi]

I suspect the larger the engine the longer it will be kept on the road (not what the eco-warriors want).
There are a number of reasons for this:
1. Larger engines tend be less stressed (many modern 1 liter engine produce 80bhp/litre - my Smart is 140bhp per litre!)
2. Larger engine tend to be driven more gently more of the time (you can't use 300hp continuously for long periods without getting nicked).
3. Larger engined cars tend to do fewer miles per year (due to fuel costs).
4. Larger engined cars tend to be second cars (with a little runabout for short runs)
5. Large engined cars tend to be used on longer trips so have fewer cold starts over their mileage covered.

 

[peterws1957]

Ag

I suspect the larger the engine the longer it will be kept on the road (not what the eco-warriors want).
There are a number of reasons for this:
1. Larger engines tend be less stressed (many modern 1 liter engine produce 80bhp/litre - my Smart is 140bhp per litre!)
2. Larger engine tend to be driven more gently more of the time (you can't use 300hp continuously for long periods without getting nicked).
3. Larger engined cars tend to do fewer miles per year (due to fuel costs).
4. Larger engined cars tend to be second cars (with a little runabout for short runs)
5. Large engined cars tend to be used on longer trips so have fewer cold starts over their mileage covered.

Agreed- I suspect my 283ci '57 chevies will be around for another 50 years everything else being equal, but I doubt whether the CL65 will last anywhere near that long due to eventual failure of the electronics.

 

[Craiglxviii]

Agreed- I suspect my 283ci '57 chevies will be around for another 50 years everything else being equal, but I doubt whether the CL65 will last anywhere near that long due to eventual failure of the electronics.

The electronics are repairable too. More and more places are opening up to perform black box repairs.

 

[LostKiwi]

The electronics are repairable too. More and more places are opening up to perform black box repairs.

The issue will be with ASICs (application specific integrated circuits).
These are often custom chips designed for a particular function and are very often customer specific (as opposed to be generic electronic components). When the supply of specialised and unique ICs dries up then the black boxes become irreparable.

 

[L John]

No one having any guesses at how old they will be when 50% of a particular model is off the road?

 

[Craiglxviii]

The issue will be with ASICs (application specific integrated circuits).
These are often custom chips designed for a particular function and are very often customer specific (as opposed to be generic electronic components). When the supply of specialised and unique ICs dries up then the black boxes become irreparable.

Yup and German cars do use them much more than other marques. However the main failure mode is tin- whiskering which can be fixed relatively easily.

 

[Craiglxviii]

No one having any guesses at how old they will be when 50% of a particular model is off the road?

No. All I can tell you is that the global average of a new car at the time it is replaced (enters the secondhand market) is 8.1 years.

 

[LostKiwi]

Yup and German cars do use them much more than other marques. However the main failure mode is tin- whiskering which can be fixed relatively easily.

There is a way around ASICs using third party ECUs (such as megasquirt to name one) , but with the increasing interoperation of modules thats getting more and more difficult.

 

[L John]

No. All I can tell you is that the global average of a new car at the time it is replaced (enters the secondhand market) is 8.1 years.

Have I read that right, the average time people keep a new car before selling it or trading it in is 8.1 years?
Doesn't seem right to me so I'm guessing I've not understood your post or there's a typo.
If it is right I can't see it being the average in the UK so other countries are keeping them much longer than we do.

 

[Craiglxviii]

Have I read that right, the average time people keep a new car before selling it or trading it in is 8.1 years?
Doesn't seem right to me so I'm guessing I've not understood your post or there's a typo.
If it is right I can't see it being the average in the UK so other countries are keeping them much longer than we do.

You’ve understood it right. The typical time that people keep a car from new before selling it is now 8.1 (eight point one) years. I don’t have a split by country but I understand it’s driven by the US more than Europe

 

[L John]

Totally shocked, I'd have expected the average to have been around 3 years in the UK. Never thought about rest of world.

 

[Craiglxviii]

Totally shocked, I'd have expected the average to have been around 3 years in the UK. Never thought about rest of world.

Yes it’s not what common perception would make one believe. The truth is that the common man is keeping his car longer from new, while at the same time expecting more of it in every way (perceived quality, performance, efficiency, reliability). So the standards across the lower A/ B segments are rising to close the C segment pretty much for the global market. This is one of the major factors behind more affordable brands closing the “quality gap” to more premium brands.

 

[ajlsl600]

Ag


Agreed- I suspect my 283ci '57 chevies will be around for another 50 years everything else being equal, but I doubt whether the CL65 will last anywhere near that long due to eventual failure of the electronics.

spot on.areal step forward eh.

 

[Craiglxviii]

spot on.areal step forward eh.

8mpg on 350 cu in in a car weighing 5200lbs producing 140bhp. Yes. A REAL step forwards.

 

[AMGeed]

I think AMGs will be kept, and very basic (think no auto box) models COULD be collectible in the future as theyre more rare and, as things head progressively more autonomous, will be MORE desirable.

I would disagree strongly that MB will ever phase out the auto box on any of their models. I would estimate almost every one of MB owners look specifically for an auto on a Mercedes. Manuals are dinosaurs now.
I know you prefer manual boxes Pete, but I think you almost on your own in that respect.

 

[Taffy7hfa]

Americans keep their new cars twice as long as we do.

 

[Craiglxviii]

Americans keep their new cars twice as long as we do.

Anecdotally perhaps. I don’t have any fact and data on it although my understanding is that new American volume sales are of the more longer lived within the overall survey dataset and thus skewing the results towards a longer average. I suspect the true story lies towards China and India rather than America.