Trump & May, we're all doomed!

davemercedes

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OK then.
- We have to have approval from 17.55 EU countries.
- and it remains whether we like it or not - our politicians signed the treaties!
 

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Trump sends missiles into Syrian airfields over chemical weapons usage, Britain according to Fallon is supportive and convinced of "Assads" guilt.

Yet the UN are not ?

Do we/Trump know different ?
 
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Craiglxviii

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Trump sends missiles into Syrian airfields over chemical weapons usage, Britain according to Fallon is supportive and convinced of "Assads" guilt.

Yet the UN are not ?

Do we/Trump know different ?

I'll pull some stuff in from a couple of other sources on this.

Firstly, what actually happened? A 60 missile time- on- target salvo that gave a certain airbase a rather thorough trousering, as well as several other facilities. Rumours last night were that a follow up strike is either under way or being planned.
 
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Craiglxviii

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Secondly, the politics or rather the political world view behind all of this.

I've posted already about Maximal Realism and how it works. This is Mr. Trump. He wants to make America the undisputed Hegemon. That is to say, the one power that other states have to stay in the good graces of. To do that the Hegemon has to slap down challengers hard, fast and thoroughly. In this arena, Assad just became a direct challenger to the authority of the Hegemon because he used nerve gas.

As an aside, NATO as a whole draws no distinction between the use of nuclear, chemical, biological or radiological warfare elements. They are all classed as WMDs and as such, their use (any type) against NATO would elicit either a nuclear or chemical attack (known by the Americans as "sliming", after Ghostbusters).

So to Trump, or rather the authority of the Hegemon, someone just used a WMD in a civil war. Against civilians. That's very not on. It's against the specific instructions of the Hegemon- do not cross this line, or else.
 
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Craiglxviii

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Now some analysis from people who get paid to do this for a living.

There were two Obama-Putin agreements for the elimination of weapons of mass destruction in a third country; Syria and chemical weapons and Iran and nuclear weapons.

Assad only has two backers, Russia and Iran. Assad's used of Sarin on civilians means that the Obama-Putin agreement for the Russian supervised elimination of Syrian chemical weapons was a fraud. By using chemical weapons Assad has demonstrated that the Obama-Putin agreement was a fraud and he was able to maintain his weapons program and stockpile, despite the promised US/Russian supervision. This usage of chemical weapons means that as far as agreements between a US President and Putin, all agreements are bollocks, and somewhat to Putin's embarrassment, it has been shown that the Russian's WMD agreements are worthless.

Putin was hoping that he could negotiate with Trump for a nuclear weapons cut, in exchange for a lifting of sanctions. This would mean that Putin would not need to spend an eye-watering fortune in upgrade the SS-18 Satan's for the new Satan II, when the Russians need all the money they have got for their conventional forces.

The Iranians wanted to see what Trump would do, following the use of a WMD, in direct breach of an Internationally endorsed and supervised agreement; just like the one they have for their nuclear weapons program.

Three days before Assad murdered civilians with nerve gas Trump had delivered the message that his administration could live with Assad remaining in power in Syria.

Someone sat down with Trump and explained what the usage of chemical weapons means to societies with high population densities and mass transit systems. Quite simply, Western societies cannot flourish in an era of chemical weapons in the hands of terrorists.

Yesterday Trump performed a 180 on his policy on Syria, predating his Presidential Primary run and is now determined to have Assad atomized.

The Iranians now know the measure of the man. They know this is no Obama. They know, through a proxy, that using WMD gets you on the US military's hit list and the commander in chief will let slip the dogs of war.
 
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Craiglxviii

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And...

It is confirmed, yes. The aircraft responsible was tracked from and to the base that was hit. What did he gain? That's a good question. The most obvious target is the US, trying to demonstrate that theirs words and agreements are worthless and that he could stand up to them. That would buy him a lot of credibility in certain circles. Another is that he demonstrates that he is the strong man, capable of doing what it takes to get what he wants.

He may have been winning but was he winning fast enough? The way I understand it he was like an unemployed man, living on his capital and hoping he can get another job before he runs out of cash. Could Assad win the war before he ran out of resources? We don't know, but the answer is probably in the explanation somewhere.

Radar tracking done by the E-2Cs of the fleet and the standing E-3 patrol out of Aviano by the way. That airspace is being VERY closely monitored.
 

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Craig, bearing in mind all that you've posted from an 'expert' can you explain the incentive for Assad to carry out this act?
Doing so would leave him at odds with Putin, not generally a forgiving chap (if we ignore his renewed friendship with Erdogan after the downed Russian fighter).
Assad 'testing' The Trump isn't very bright, unless you can see a gain that I can't.
Testing the UN is so what. Some time in the future they will tell him in the most strong terms they can that he is a naughty boy and that if he does it again there be be another resolution passed that means f' all, if Russia let them.
 
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Craiglxviii

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Craig, bearing in mind all that you've posted from an 'expert' can you explain the incentive for Assad to carry out this act?
Doing so would leave him at odds with Putin, not generally a forgiving chap (if we ignore his renewed friendship with Erdogan after the downed Russian fighter).
Assad 'testing' The Trump isn't very bright, unless you can see a gain that I can't.
Testing the UN is so what. Some time in the future they will tell him in the most strong terms they can that he is a naughty boy and that if he does it again there be be another resolution passed that means f' all, if Russia let them.

Two analysts yes. I've used these guys as sources before.

The incentive for Assad is to show that he can do this and get away with it in the face of the Hegemon. That wins political capital in Iran (and a few other places...), the key point being that it shows the Hegemon to be a "toothless old lion", as Galtieri described us in 1982.

The issue there is, if the Hegemon doesn't act- and isn't seen by the world to have acted- swiftly, decisively, thoroughly and utterly, then the Hegemon's authority begins to erode worldwide. That is exactly what happened under Obama. It isn't just military or economic, but grand strategic.

So, Assad broke agreements over WMDs and did it not only bare facedly but against civilians. The Hegemon took swift and decisive action. They didn't ask permission (they're the Hegemon, bluntly they don't need to), they informed the Russians to move out of that airbase PDQ and then launched a TOT salvo.

Thus, the Hegemon has shown swift and thorough action, the site creating the threat is rubble, Russia had time to pull its forces out of the way so no casualties to her, and Assad's stock has been collapsed in the eyes of his backers. Plus a whole lot more.
 
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Craiglxviii

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The UN by the way is pretty meaningless. It has little ability to actually do anything in this sort of context. So ignore them ;)

Mr. Trump was tested and has shown his opponents his mettle. That's also for the Russians btw- they now know he's not afraid to shoot. That is not a bad thing, it means that his opponents now take his words seriously.
 

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My issue with this analysis is that even if Assad got away with it, his gain isn't of great value as far as i see.
To not get away with it he now has Putin far less willing to aid his ambitions, and The Trump has cause (justification in the eyes of some of the world is another and not his greatest concern) to move on assad Saddam style.

A quick pro versus con risk analysis by Assad would tell him not to be so ****** stupid.
I can see others that would have the greater incentive for the act though.
 
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Craiglxviii

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My issue with this analysis is that even if Assad got away with it, his gain isn't of great value as far as i see.
To not get away with it he now has Putin far less willing to aid his ambitions, and The Trump has cause (justification in the eyes of some of the world is another and not his greatest concern) to move on assad Saddam style.

A quick pro versus con risk analysis by Assad would tell him not to be so ****** stupid.
I can see others that would have the greater incentive for the act though.

It isn't just his gain. View him as a pawn. What do other people have to gain from the US' nose being rubbed in it by people standing upto them successfully? The answer is, a freer hand in conducting their affairs where they intersect with others who might want US support.

The gains in this aren't military, they're grand strategic and not for Assad. Either way, his policy advisors did conduct a risk analysis of launching a chemical attack and decided that they were worthwhile. They didn't believe the clawless Eagle would bother to wake up- and they didn't notice that it's just had a new set of claws and had been busy sharpening them recently.
 

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His greatest asset, and has been for a while, is Putin. Embarrassing that chap tends to create such stresses that a person can age 20 years in 12 months.

It's difficult to believe that even such as Assad, with what must be a failing self confidence, would risk alienating him.
It's easy to see that Putin is using Syria to enhance his Mediterranean ambitions (and he need Erdogan for his route into the Black Sea as an aside). Putin isn't going to withdraw from Syria leaving Assad at risk, more like he will strengthen those foundations so his Med ambitions don't falter. This would be at Assad's detriment if he looks to be unreliable. Inviting The Trump to get heavy in the area isn't something Putin would want, it complicates what Putin would see as a manageable plan.
 
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Craiglxviii

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His greatest asset, and has been for a while, is Putin. Embarrassing that chap tends to create such stresses that a person can age 20 years in 12 months.

It's difficult to believe that even such as Assad, with what must be a failing self confidence, would risk alienating him.
It's easy to see that Putin is using Syria to enhance his Mediterranean ambitions (and he need Erdogan for his route into the Black Sea as an aside). Putin isn't going to withdraw from Syria leaving Assad at risk, more like he will strengthen those foundations so his Med ambitions don't falter. This would be at Assad's detriment if he looks to be unreliable. Inviting The Trump to get heavy in the area isn't something Putin would want, it complicates what Putin would see as a manageable plan.

Putin's plans look to be more than just obtain a warm water port. Some of the wonks think that he is flexing his muscles to get on better terms with the Americans.

Look at what he has done. He's demonstrated an expeditionary warfare capability along with sustained combat ops. He has shown that he can play with the big boys. Moreover he has shown that he can be trusted to support his allies. That's worth a lot.

This action by Assad is a wet kipper right in the puss for all of that. His ally couldn't be trusted not to act on behalf of someone else- who has designs all of his own as regards that part of the world.

NB the Russians have just removed air track deconfliction for US aeroplanes (meaning that they now cannot safely engage in combat ops) and are rushing theatre level SAM systems to Syria.
 
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Craiglxviii

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That's the air track deconfliction thing I mentioned. It stops friendly aeroplanes from shooting each other down.
 
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Craiglxviii

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Some more news. Some confirmed, some unconfirmed.

Russian S-300 & S-300PMU theatre level (army level) SAM systems are on strict weapons- hold orders, permission to fire direct fromMoscow only.

Russian SAM systems were/ are placed to cover Russian installations, with minimal coverage for anything else. Their SA-22 GREYHOUND gun/SAM systems were not deployed to Syrian bases. No MAINSTAY AEWC aircraft were up. In short, despite what the Russians said in the media (and Assad?) they did not provide an integrated air defence system or indeed anything like it. That IS interesting. That's all confirmed in open source by the way.

However they have supplied limited SA-22 vehicles to the Syrians. At least one was hit in the American raid, photos showing a burnt out wreck have been published.

Now the unconfirmed bit for those who like conspiracies. GEN. Mohammed Masoury, the pilot who flew the chemical strike in question, died in a car bombing attack yesterday.
 

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Looks like you get get a nasty bite if your not careful,
back to the thread about muzzles.
 
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Craiglxviii

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The PLA (Chinese Army) have just moved 150k troops upto the Chinese: North Korean border.

A leak from the Japanese government today has said that they are expecting a US decapitation strike against Pyongyang, imminent.

Military flights over Continental US specifically for KC-135 Stratotanker and Looking Glass airborne command post aircraft have increased dramatically this week.

Hmm. Something is afoot.
 

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