Catalonia

Craiglxviii

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Strictly speaking, it's an illegal act- it was ruled illegal by the Spanish Supreme Court. Also I've no doubt that the Scottish fishes will jump all over this.

However...

the Spanish authorities have NOT handled this well, at all.
 

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It's very much to do with the EU. Independence would create a seperate state. Would it be an EU member? Same debate as per the Scottish independence vote.
 

LostKiwi

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It's very much to do with the EU. Independence would create a seperate state. Would it be an EU member? Same debate as per the Scottish independence vote.
Nope its still nothing to do with the EU.
As an independent nation it would need to apply for membership and follow the rules for any other country. Scotland would be in the same situation.
 

d215yq

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I lived in Catalunya for 5 years and now live in Valencia. Although the local language (Valenciana and Catalan) are practically identical the sentiments and identity of the two populations could not be very different. Here very proud to be Spanish and in Catalunya, not so. I'm not for independence but am for giving them a vote (which incidentally before yesterday's mess would have almost certainly voted to stay by a smallish margin). Going in beating up voters is only going to lose you the war illegal or not.

If someone organises an illegal vote you surely just let them get on with it and laugh at the result and not accept it rather than physically try to prevent it which will always be a vote loser. Could be some interesting times ahead, the fragmented police forces do not help matters and there could be a real power struggle bewteen the Guardia Civil (technically atleast in part a military organisation) and the local Mossos d'esquadra (a police force). In a way rather glad I don't live there any more.

And what's with the EU bashing? I thought the EU weren't meant to interfer with sovereign nations? It's nothing to do with them and this has been brewing for years. The EU can't really say anything as a Catalunya would technically have to negotiate entry. As users of schengen/the Euro it would indeed be more difficult for them to stay out than Scotland and my guess is some new rule would be bought in that as it is already part of a country that is part of the EU it will not have to officially join. Of course the EU can't know what it's policy will be as it will have to decide amongst itself so has to just distance itself for the time being.
 

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There are many meetings going on and Juncker is meeting the Spanish president and the Catalan president this evening.
It will not have gone unnoticed.
 
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41493014

"Many Catalans have been angered by the European Commission's statement on Monday that events in Catalonia were an internal issue for Spain."

It could all kick off Monday and I imagine leaders of other such semi-autonomous regions within the EU are watching with interest.
 

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41493014

"Many Catalans have been angered by the European Commission's statement on Monday that events in Catalonia were an internal issue for Spain."

It could all kick off Monday and I imagine leaders of other such semi-autonomous regions within the EU are watching with interest.
It is an internal issue for Spain. Can't see why they are upset with that statement.
 

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Be interesting to hear the dear old EU's position on this as an independence vote means the Catalans are outside the EU and would have to negotiate entry with the rest of the member nations this would of course take years wouldn't it ?
Spain would have to block Catalonia from joining as an independent country as they don't recognise the referendum, to let them join would seal the vote.
All the time the borders would have to be guarded.
With the med to the east all those migrants would have a new landing point.
Of course they have another big problem to deal with at the moment US !!
They aren't doing very well at negotiating with us and trying to appease both sides in this independence bid would make our Brexit bill perambulations seem mild.
 

Craiglxviii

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I wonder if anyone has yet reconciled Catalonia's GDP with their debts, versus the rest of the country?

I'm also suspicious that the phone lines from Barcelona to San Sebastien/ Pamplona are growing rather warm. There's a very real possibility that in a couple of years, the Spanish land border to France could be cut off by two or more independent states
 
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Exactly. Catalonia is rich, which would affect Spain's standing in the EU if they become independent

This is all why I think it is an EU-wide issue. How can it not be?
 

Craiglxviii

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Exactly. Catalonia is rich, which would affect Spain's standing in the EU if they become independent

This is all why I think it is an EU-wide issue. How can it not be?

Alas all is not quite as it seems. Some issues in no particular order:

Catalonia has taken out significant debts (from rest of Spain), the extent of which is not known but believed to be a decent proportion of regional GDP.
Catalonia represents the following to Spain;
15% of population.
21% of GDP.
33% of heavy industrial plant (in operation and mothballed).
25% of containerized cargo handling.
19% of break bulk cargo handling.
Catalonia's regional government & government bureaucracy is paid by (and subsidized through economies of scale by) the government in Madrid.

Of the heavy industrial plant, 75% is owned by international concerns so a big question mark hangs over them. How would these operate in an independent nation that is not Spain?

So an independent Catalonia has some serious challenges, not least of which are: how does it provide border security and controls, how does it pay its people and what with?
 

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Alas all is not quite as it seems. Some issues in no particular order:

Catalonia has taken out significant debts (from rest of Spain), the extent of which is not known but believed to be a decent proportion of regional GDP.
Catalonia represents the following to Spain;
15% of population.
21% of GDP.
33% of heavy industrial plant (in operation and mothballed).
25% of containerized cargo handling.
19% of break bulk cargo handling.
Catalonia's regional government & government bureaucracy is paid by (and subsidized through economies of scale by) the government in Madrid.

Of the heavy industrial plant, 75% is owned by international concerns so a big question mark hangs over them. How would these operate in an independent nation that is not Spain?

So an independent Catalonia has some serious challenges, not least of which are: how does it provide border security and controls, how does it pay its people and what with?

A few things learnt from my 5 years here:

The mindset for people who want independence is not primarily economics. I've met a few "we would be Switzerland if it wasn't for Spain" type idiots that can only think in binary but the majority accept that the majority of the extra cash that they give to Spain versus what they receive back would be needed for the extra bureacracy of running the nation.

They see that as worthwhile so they can direct their own nation. The language thing is very important to them and Madrid has over the years deliberately provoked them and challenged the bilingual model in schools, which is ridiculous as Catalans score above average in the tests for Castilian Spanish. Then there is the matter of Spain trying to build a rather expensive freight rail link through the pyrenees to avoid Catalunya even though this is the most logical route, the fact that the only toll roads that it is necessary to use in the whole of Spain are in Catalunya (there are others out of Catalunya but these are paired with other free motorways so only unwitting tourists use them).

The fact the two main parties in Catalunya are not national parties also means their MPs can do very little nationally and the two main parties (especially the PP, a spin off of Franco's regime) actually do their best to antagonise the people of Catalunya as it pays off nationally (a bit like them putting boats in Gibraltar's waters before elections).

I personally think the independence thing is overhyped and I wouldn't vote for it and until recently, the majority of Catalans probably wouldn't. But now it has been escalated then felling of national identity will trump economics and the Catalans will probably go for it if not soon in the future. The argument has changed from 5 years ago among the average person from "we'll only be a little better off under independence in the long term so why risk it" to "we can support ourselves and even if we're economically worse off we want our own state". That is quite a difference. The 75% owned industry certainly won't care if Catalunya remains in the Euro and EU; they'll be more concerned with Brexit than that as long as there isn't a breakdown in total anarchy.

As to your question of debt, not sure what you refer to. It is true that historically Catalunya was developed by Spain under Franco when he bought in lots of people from the rest of Spain and set up manufacturing there. This was to dilute the Catalan identity (indeed people were murdered/tortured for speaking Catalan in this era). Therefore any mention of that would be like stating that ex colonial Africa owes us royalties on the infrastructure we put in; it would not be a vote winner.

As for your last questions; Catalunya wants to remain in Schengen and, it might be alien to you, but the people do not give a care in the world about border security, defence, etc. They would only be scared of the Spanish army. The coast guard/police (Mossos) they have are already fully autonomous from Spain and are controlled by the generalitat already. Tax revenues, under the autonomous region system are also all collected locally and sent to Madrid. Then less is received back. So they could (and might) just declare independence, not send any money and as long as the Mossos are on board unless Spain want to send in the army (which would almost certainly lose them the war even if they win the battle) then there is not much else to be done. Pretty much every layer of bureacracy and public service is already run locally, even car registrations and car tax is by town!! The only thing they would lose from independence is an army (they hate anyway and see as brutal and against them) and automatic EU membership.
 

LostKiwi

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Exactly. Catalonia is rich, which would affect Spain's standing in the EU if they become independent

This is all why I think it is an EU-wide issue. How can it not be?

Simply because its an internal Spanish issue. The EU may be concerned, it may have recommendations and suggestions but fundamentally this is internal spanish politics and subject to no EU laws being broken or human rights violations is not in their remit.
 

Craiglxviii

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Those are very valuable insights. Thank you very much.
 

d215yq

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I see now that there are also huge protests in support of the union across many of the major cities in Spain. As I now live on "the other side" in Valencia the last year has been a revelation in what Spanish people think of the Catalans, I've yet to think of one who likes them and doesn't think they are just a bunch of moaners, etc. That said half seem to want them to just get on with it and leave but the other half are staunchly anti any form of seperatism.

I have a good friend here who is 35, from Zaragoza, met her at a meditation weekend, she is into yoga/meditation daily, vegetarian, doesn't believe in borders, thinks immigrants should be rescued from the sea and given a life here, etc. Once we got talking about Catalunya and suddenly her meek lefty peaceful persona changed to be something like a full on UKIPer would be proud of "I don't hate any individual but...all those catalans are trying to ruin our great country, steal from the crown of Aragon, etc" and quoting it being part of the same kingdom in c15th century as justification. Which is rather strange as Catalans are, particularly on social issues, incredibly liberal and progressive in comparison to the rest of Spain.

Here at work there is no sympathy and the police are "completely justified - it's an illegal referendum". That's why the king fuelled the fire with his intervention - anything anti catalan is a big vote winner here, even amongst left wing/liberals/progressives who out of Spain would be disgusted at police brutality, nationalism, etc.

My prediction is Catalunya will declare independence (politically for the Catalans to negotiate with Madrid would be as futile as negotiating with ISIS); Madrid will try to stop it, the EU/UN will fudge and fudge until it has to intervene and back the seperatists (although there are a few nations like Italy and France who will want to quell any new nations appearing the majority of the EU countries will see themselves in principle and in outlook more at ease with a new country over what would then be seen as forced occupation). And then everyone will realise their lives are similar anyway. I´ll add that I expect a 3 or 4 year time frame for the above - there's too much to lose from both sides if things are escalated too quickly or things get too out of hand.

We shall see. In the meantime I'll make the most of the free land border and carry on as normal (i head to Barcelona from here every month or two) :)
 

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I wonder if those who think the Catalonia situation is related to Spain'e EU membership would react in a hypothetical situation here in UK... e.g.: If Oxford - held an illegal referendum and then declared independence would the EU try to interfere? I think they would say it's an internal matter for the UK government.

But this also highlights the whole referendum "validity" question: the result of the Catalonia referendum was more "iffy" than ours - the turnout was 43.03% of which 92.01% voted Yes so just 39.59% of the population were in favour while we had a turnout of 72% with 52% in favour of leaving i.e.: 37.44% of our population.
 
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