Brexit

[Yugguy]

Aye, I grew up in not quite poverty, but close, on a 70s council estate. Everything I have is what I have worked myself for.

Like triumphstag I also get annoyed when my Leave vote is described as ill-considered, although to be fair that hasn't happened much here. I don't mind being told I am wrong, but I do mind if people think I wasn't considering my daughter's future as well as my own when I made my choice.

 

[davemercedes]

Seems to me that there are inherent problems with trying to draw broad conclusions from any of these "Brexit surveys/reports" (positive or negative).

Firstly, the author may be knowingly/unknowingly following a political bias or agenda. Secondly, unless the "sample" is scientifically selected and balanced, you will probably get a skewed result. Finally, all the sales people amongst us will know that you can influence the answer to a quaestion by the way you phrase it ("And you wouldn't want that to happen to you, would you?").

Oh no... (or definitely maybe)!
- And I'm not even doing the salesman's "nodding for agreement" trick either!

I'm sure most reports/surveys on almost everything are biased to some extent, it's the nature of the beast and often depends on how it's funded of course - especially when product use is surveyed etc. On news item I think Reuters tends to be a little more neutral.

I found this particularly during the US election when Auntie blatantly ignored any feedback it didn't like. I remember posting that when I gave up and went to bed according to the Beeb it was neck and neck whilst Reuters (and to be fair CNN and Bloomberg) were giving the actual results as they came in.

 

[triumphstag]

You had a council house?
Wow!
- Lucky you!.

Most people did in my area (it was many years ago)

Ultimately my objection is about you labelling me as a chosen one.


It's not about I'm alright Jack, I have also had increased costs due to the weakness of the pound, but I am willing to accept that as I believe the overall benefits will show themselves long term, and I do believe the EU as it stands now is heading for disaster and if Britain leaving is the wake up call it needs to take a good long look at itself I am happy for them as well.

What I won't do is sit on a forum and moan about how terrible it all is, demand back the money I have spent on petrol as you seem to want to do, dredging up every negative thing you can (handbag manufacture, really?) And then interspersing a few positives (with comments about how they are actually bad).

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[davemercedes]

Aye, I grew up in not quite poverty, but close, on a 70s council estate. Everything I have is what I have worked myself for.

Like triumphstag I also get annoyed when my Leave vote is described as ill-considered, although to be fair that hasn't happened much here. I don't mind being told I am wrong, but I do mind if people think I wasn't considering my daughter's future as well as my own when I made my choice.

I wouldn't even dream of saying that you weren't considering your daughter's future (and I wouldn't say that about triumphstag either) - I simply stated that my reasons include fears for my children/grandchildren and they (my views) just happen to be different. I'd be interested to see a case for Brexit improving their future though.

Most of it as always is down to politicians and double dealing - for example you don't have to even think about Brexit before our kids got hit - my first niece is looking forward to Uni very soon. Then afterwards she'll owe c£18K or more with a very long lead time before she will be able to buy property.

 

[davemercedes]

Most people did in my area (it was many years ago)

Ultimately my objection is about you labelling me as a chosen one.

It's not about I'm alright Jack, I have also had increased costs due to the weakness of the pound, but I am willing to accept that as I believe the overall benefits will show themselves long term, and I do believe the EU as it stands now is heading for disaster and if Britain leaving is the wake up call it needs to take a good long look at itself I am happy for them as well.

What I won't do is sit on a forum and moan about how terrible it all is, demand back the money I have spent on petrol as you seem to want to do, dredging up every negative thing you can (handbag manufacture, really?) And then interspersing a few positives (with comments about how they are actually bad).

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Handbag manufacturer - as usual you have no sense of humour!

You said - contrary to the results of a detailed survey covering 2013 to date that you're doing okay so I presumed you must be specially chosen - if not, how come you're apparently better off than a high percentage of the population?

Mind you, there may be some good news in that article though because:

"The survey - conducted between March 15 and 19 - showed 58 percent of households expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates from a record low 0.25 percent over the next 12 months..."

So after years of sweet FA I might actually something for saving money for retirement instead of "hissing" it away. But if it happens, it will upset people with mortgages - should I feel sorry about that?

I'm glad that you are willing to accept inflation caused by the pound's weakness. Like me, you've got no option anyway; my worry is whether I'll be able to cope with increased costs in future because as someone else said on here recently nobody else will look out for me!

So far as interspersing comments about "good" news, I'm sorry if the truth is painful. And please tell me - why should I be deliriously happy about increased fuel and other costs which is "lost" money that we'll never see again and I certainly never intended to spend?

- Did you vote for inflation?
- Whether you thought of it or not, there's plenty more to come (even the BOE says so)!

- And once again, even if the pound stages a miraculous recovery none of us will ever see that money back again and yes: I begrudge it now and always will.

- And by the way, most of what you say (to me) does come across as "I'm all right Jack"

 

[triumphstag]

Handbag manufacturer - as usual you have no sense of humour!

You said - contrary to the results of a detailed survey covering 2013 to date that you're doing okay so I presumed you must be specially chosen - if not, how come you're apparently better off than a high percentage of the population?

Mind you, there may be some good news in that article though because:

"The survey - conducted between March 15 and 19 - showed 58 percent of households expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates from a record low 0.25 percent over the next 12 months..."

So after years of sweet FA I might actually something for saving money for retirement instead of "hissing" it away. But if it happens, it will upset people with mortgages - should I feel sorry about that?

I'm glad that you are willing to accept inflation caused by the pound's weakness. Like me, you've got no option anyway; my worry is whether I'll be able to cope with increased costs in future because as someone else said on here recently nobody else will look out for me!

So far as interspersing comments about "good" news, I'm sorry if the truth is painful. And please tell me - why should I be deliriously happy about increased fuel and other costs which is "lost" money that we'll never see again and I certainly never intended to spend?

- Did you vote for inflation?
- Whether you thought of it or not, there's plenty more to come (even the BOE says so)!

- And once again, even if the pound stages a miraculous recovery none of us will ever see that money back again and yes: I begrudge it now and always will.

- And by the way, most of what you say (to me) does come across as "I'm all right Jack"

I do have a sense of humour, but my sense of humour only extends to things that are funny.

Yes, I did expect inflation, I also expected there to be pain for a while, but then I am familiar with economic cycles.
Ultimately being scared of the pain and cost of doing something is not reason to not do it, it's like a bad relationship staying because you feel obliged to or are scared of life on your own.



As for interest rates, yes they will rise, of course they will, they have been historically low for a long time (I'm waiting for you to blame Brexit for that)

As for feeling sorry for people who have mortgages, who asked you to feel sorry for them? I have a mortgage, I don't expect (nor want) you (or anyone else) to feel sorry for me.

As for the money you have lost, what will you do if the pound gets up above its Pre Brexit Vote levels, will you then consider the gain you will be making??? What if, say fuel drops to under a pound a litre? (It's a hypothetical question - I am not saying it will) or will you come out with something like, no, only the bankers will benefit then.

Like i said before, fuel prices (for instance) have been unrealistically low for a few years, have you been celebrating the money you have been saving like you are now moaning about the money you have "lost"?

 

[triumphstag]

And as for that "survey", well I wouldn't trust those as far as I could throw them, the Pre election polls have been so accurate, haven't they? So yes, I am ignoring it based on my own experiences and what I see going on around me.

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[Taffy7hfa]

Any economist will tell you that a little bit of inflation (anything below around 10%) can be a good thing as it has the side effect of making your debts shrink, great if your a homeowner, the baby boomer generation benefited hugely from inflation for 40 years, it was a trigger for social mobility, which in recent tears has almost stopped. Very low inflation can make an economy stagnate.

 

[davemercedes]

I do have a sense of humour, but my sense of humour only extends to things that are funny.

Yes, I did expect inflation, I also expected there to be pain for a while, but then I am familiar with economic cycles.
Ultimately being scared of the pain and cost of doing something is not reason to not do it, it's like a bad relationship staying because you feel obliged to or are scared of life on your own.



As for interest rates, yes they will rise, of course they will, they have been historically low for a long time (I'm waiting for you to blame Brexit for that)

As for feeling sorry for people who have mortgages, who asked you to feel sorry for them? I have a mortgage, I don't expect (nor want) you (or anyone else) to feel sorry for me.

As for the money you have lost, what will you do if the pound gets up above its Pre Brexit Vote levels, will you then consider the gain you will be making??? What if, say fuel drops to under a pound a litre? (It's a hypothetical question - I am not saying it will) or will you come out with something like, no, only the bankers will benefit then.

Like i said before, fuel prices (for instance) have been unrealistically low for a few years, have you been celebrating the money you have been saving like you are now moaning about the money you have "lost"?

Frankly, I've come to the conclusion that you just say opposite to me for the hell of it. Of course I wouldn't react as you say if the pound went to above pre-Brexit rates or fuel dropped to under a pound per litre. But not like you i.e.: being in a position where I'm doing fine, thank you - I would be happy as a result, that my income would spread further. And btw the bankers gain either way (surely you must have heard of LIBOR? - I mean the new one that we hope is now straight, not the old "bent" rip off).

If our currency was kept strong it would also be a good thing. Funny isn't it that the Japanese Yen has been enormously strong for as long as I remember and yet they took virtually the entire motor cycle industry from UK (even though by then it had been ruined like a lot of other industries. And oh yes, who has the biggest car manufacturers and TVs and...? Yes, the Japanese with their very strong Yen. Let's petition Hammond to ask them to weaken it!

I will feel sorry for people with mortgages because as I've said before I consider my children and their families (along with you, yours and other younger people) and I think it's fairly simple to identify that young family + Mortgage generally goes together and the "instant" nett increase to a mortgage-payer's outgoings can be very painful. But on the other hand at least it won't rise to the levels I had to struggle through (16 percent!) when the UK chancellor didn't know his head from his other end (he still ended up becoming a Lord though, nothing new there either). At least and surpisingly, that's one thing that the socialists did right i.e.: taking the interest rate control away from politicians - back in those days it was frankly obscene the way the guy in No 11 Downing Street could hit you with a new rate over which you had no control whatsoever and often with next to no time to even try and adjust - and sometimes the changes were very painful indeed (although I suspect that today the links between the "committee" and No 11 are pretty strong and nothing happens that the chancellor isn't aware of before it happens!).

What do you mean "fuel prices (for instance) have been unrealistically low for a few years" ? Don't you mean they've been unrealistically HIGH for a number of years? Today's and the previous prices are the result of the Arabs decision to politicise the power they had in the price of fuel (it was about 25p a GALLON when they first hiked it up and it's never stopped) and with it they condemned us to massive inflation which we had to ride out - so in the same old tradition wages/salaries went up and so did the overall cost of living resulting in more printed money (nobody had coined the expression "Quantative Easing" back then, but it's the same thing!

- You cannot seriously tell me that it's worth the price we have to pay today with or without the dollar issue?

Regarding your question: As for the money you have lost, what will you do if the pound gets up above its Pre Brexit Vote levels, will you then consider the gain you will be making ??? Yes I will. I will be very pleased that I'm getting back some of the money I had to spend through no action on my part - and of course most of it went to currency investors and banks didn't it?

Your last sentence is like the ingredients of runaway inflation - let's not worry about it, we'll just print some more and increase the national debt, eh?

- Hmmm. I wish I could print some.

 

[davemercedes]

And as for that "survey", well I wouldn't trust those as far as I could throw them, the Pre election polls have been so accurate, haven't they? So yes, I am ignoring it based on my own experiences and what I see going on around me.

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Ah. But I expect you trust the surveys saying business is great and every company thinks Brexit will be a good thing, eh?

 

[prwales]

Any economist will tell you that a little bit of inflation (anything below around 10%) can be a good thing as it has the side effect of making your debts shrink, great if your a homeowner, the baby boomer generation benefited hugely from inflation for 40 years, it was a trigger for social mobility, which in recent tears has almost stopped. Very low inflation can make an economy stagnate.

2% is seen as the desired figure

 

[davemercedes]

I do have a sense of humour, but my sense of humour only extends to things that are funny.

Yes, I did...

As for interest rates, yes they will rise, of course they will, they have been historically low for a long time (I'm waiting for you to blame Brexit for that)

Interest rates were low and Osborne was trying to reduce our debt. Then along came Hammond and (surprise!), he did some more "Quantative Easing" (I prefer to say he printed more money that we haven't got!) which was just about the sum of his Brexit preparation! Then no doubt the interest rate "committee" followed his lead and froze where they were because he was/is too scared to push for any changes.

And contrary to what you think - a healthy increase in interest rates would do me personally the world of good because I might get more than sweet FA per pound on my savings rates (which I rely on for income as well as "rain days" - it's okay, I know you think I'm selfish expecting to get a return on that).

But in my view mortgage payers will suffer when interest rates rise and that covers my children's ability to provide homes for my grandchildren etc so I don't hope it changes too soon. As I said earlier though, at least any such change now will be small potatoes compared to the massive rates of the past.

 

[M80]

Mr Tusk saying they miss us already

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-39424391

anymore talk like and the likes of me might start to see them as a nice bunch who aren't so angry that the want to beat the life out of us.

 

[M80]

All the calls for the Govt to list their Brexit negotiation points would undoubtedly weaken our negotiating position. In fact any in house bickering works in favour of the eu.

The SNP shouting for Indy 2 does weaken the position, even more if the referendum were granted.

The strong attitude of the eu for us to pay a big departure tax, and pay before any other negotiation can commence, can only be met with the same strength of character. If we are weak then we come out with less.

Our Govt has a duty to the UK to attain the best deal possible. The strategy employed to get that is very important.

Although I realise we must be involved with the rest of the world, including Europe, The Trump strategy to become more self reliant, more insular, has merits. Out of the eu we can and should move progressively toward this. This doesn't mean closing our doors but trading to our, and mutual, benefit and not as directed to suit others.

The referendum result was close, not decisive as often stated. The remain side clearly have a good argument or it wouldn't have been so close. I do believe though that the referendum was full of cr*ap on both sides, so in balance the result was fair.
Stopping the process before it started wouldn't be democratic, the People 'of the UK' demonstrated their wishes with the majority vote.

I can see a reasonable argument for 'the People', not the House of Numpties (which ever one) being given a final choice when the actual choice is known. As I understand it, but there are whispers that I misunderstand, once the A50 is triggered there is no going back, we are heading for 'out'.
Could this be a possible point for later negotiation, much later? The eu want to keep us but have they shot themselves in the foot by designing the Lisbon treaty with no flexibility? Of course TM can't afford to show that style thinking till much later, it would weaken the negotiating position.

March 2019 we are supposedly out of the eu, with or without agreement. Before then there's a lot to discuss / argue about. We might see a softening of the eu stance, we might even see some concessions. In my view that would be intelligent as we are a sizable nose on their face and keeping us pretty has mutual advantage.
Is there anything preventing TM come March(ish) 2019 saying "here we have the final deal, we shall now hold another referendum for the people to accept it and leave, or reject it and remain?

 

[ashford charlie]

Is there anything preventing TM come March(ish) 2019 saying "here we have the final deal, we shall now hold another referendum for the people to accept it and leave, or reject it and remain?

I agree with everything you mention in your excellent post with the exception of the paragraph quoted above.

If we adopted this "stance" the EU (who really don't want us to leave) could offer a really poor deal knowing that we wouldn't/couldn't accept it, thereby (in the EU's eyes) leaving the door open to "encourage" us to abandon Brexit.

 

[M80]

I agree with everything you mention in your excellent post with the exception of the paragraph quoted above.

If we adopted this "stance" the EU (who really don't want us to leave) could offer a really poor deal knowing that we wouldn't/couldn't accept it, thereby (in the EU's eyes) leaving the door open to "encourage" us to abandon Brexit.

Could this be a possible point for later negotiation, much later? The eu want to keep us but have they shot themselves in the foot by designing the Lisbon treaty with no flexibility? Of course TM can't afford to show that style thinking till much later, it would weaken the negotiating position.




Is there anything preventing TM come March(ish) 2019 saying "here we have the final deal, we shall now hold another referendum for the people to accept it and leave, or reject it and remain?

That was my thinking, hence the bit in bold.

Sorry I'm not good with double quoting.

 

[Xtractorfan]

I agree with everything you mention in your excellent post with the exception of the paragraph quoted above.

If we adopted this "stance" the EU (who really don't want us to leave) could offer a really poor deal knowing that we wouldn't/couldn't accept it, thereby (in the EU's eyes) leaving the door open to "encourage" us to abandon Brexit.




That was my thinking, hence the bit in bold.

Sorry I'm not good with double quoting.

I'm surprised you guys can actually tie your own shoelaces.. Teresa May talks a load of bollocks, scripted bollocks, just like David Cameron before her. Have u ever watched her when she is caught off guard, and has to ad lib. She is hopeless, stammering, looking for answers she doesn't have...
Remember Cameron he used to go into a 'run down' the opposition mode, lie through your teeth and hope someone will believe you.. May hasn't quite got the hang of it yet.

 

[dry run]

Extractor fan, what do you want the PM to say? I think we have to use everything we have to do a good Brexir deal.

The art of negotiation is well understood. The EU are "price conditioning" us by talking about a £50bn divorce settlement. A deal at £25bn would then look good value, but they would probably have settled for that day 1.

Remember, "the secret of a good negotiation is that much of the negotiation must be secret".

 

[Xtractorfan]

Yes but negotiations haven't happened and no one is sure as to how they will go.. Being run by civil servants it will be a year before the terms of the negotiations will even be set.
And she has thrown a silly spanner into the works by suggesting that security issues ie British intelligence won't be shared if they don't play ball. Just what Juncker will want for him to think of something more stupid to throw back.

 

[ashford charlie]

I'm surprised you guys can actually tie your own shoelaces.. Teresa May talks a load of bollocks.

If this is the level of your imput to the debate (bad language and insults) perhaps you should somewhere else to vent your feelings?

Incidentally I've just checked and I can actually tie my shoe laces.