Values of ICE cars going forward..

[Conor]

Hello all,

I know, I know... I feel like this might have been flogged to death before. But I couldn't find anything that easily. Curious to hear what people think..

"Where do people think desirable (non appliance) cars might go in the future.."

Various timeframes like the next 15-20 years.. kind of thing.

By desirable, I mean something that has some level of novely to it.. such as a sporty element, rarity, big engine, convertible etc..

Most of my cars are reasonable low value and I get enjoyment out of working on them and driving them.. so if they end up being worth nil in 20 years time it's no big deal.. but I'm not sure i'd feel overly comfortable if my 911 Turbo was going to be worth a fraction of what it is now.

I personally feel like when it comes to things like this.. people often paint the worst picture which rarely ends up being the case (covid=end of civilisation, 2008 GFC=total financial system meltdown.. etc..)

I personally feel like the only thing that will put downward pressure on values or whatever is a lack of demand.. as younger generations might have less interest. I don't feel like governments will tax these cars to make them unusable.. and I think it will be a long time before petrol becomes unobtainable. I feel like once the EV transition meets critical mass, they will stop with the ICE rules and regs.

 

[malcolm E53 AMG]

I think secondhand ICE cars prices will fall from the historic highs we are seeing at the moment by a good percentage by the end of 2024 especially the bigger engined cars - my two cars combined VED is just shy of £600 (290 each) so a bit of a dampener for another purchaser.
A lot depends on where new EV car prices are heading with the Chinese looking to flood the EU with cheap offerings anything can happen the EU are already panicking and threatening to put a high import duty on them to protect domestic manufacturers.

 

[fabes]

But if the EU does go tarrif crazy, the entry price for EVs will remain unobtainable for the masses and they will miss their own objectives of X or Y or whatever Z is.

There is still a decent inventory of ICE cars under 2 to 3 year old out there that can be bought when necessary, as the household budget is squeezed, and these are not new so don't affect m/f CO2 thresholds.

They will just see a fall in new car sales of all flavours, but a sweep up of the inventory that is sat on forecourts, old airfields etc.

At least that's my take on it ...

 

[NJS5]

I believe that classic cars which are totally mechanical, no electronics, like the MGA, MG B, XK Jaguars etc.. will hold their values well.

Sadly ones like my R230 SL will probably continue to depreciate.

NJSS

 

[fabes]

And, anyway, does a EU tarrif affect the UK post Brexit....?

 

[star]

I think ice car values will drop as EV cars take more of the market until the realisation of keeping an older EV on the road hits, then the value of ice cars will rise due to demand.

 

[AMGeed]

I see ICE cars holding their values similar to today until the time comes the government of the day decided to tax fuel so much that owners cannot afford to run them. Only the very wealthy will be able to afford to run/tax them.
Genghis Khan is doing something similar in London with the extended ULEZ zoning forcing perfectly good cars to become practically worthless inside London.

 

[malcolm E53 AMG]

The only way the UK government are going to meet their ban on selling ICE cars by 2030 is to allow the Chinese to flood the UK market with cheap EVs - we are living in very interesting times

 

[AMGeed]

The only way the UK government are going to meet their ban on selling ICE cars by 2030 is to allow the Chinese to flood the UK market with cheap EVs - we are living in very interesting times

Rishi Sunak having second thoughts it appears. Could it be because a GE date is coming soon?
Nah, that's too cynical

Rishi Sunak considers weakening key green policies

Plans could include delaying a ban on sales of new petrol cars and the phasing out of gas boilers.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Conor]

I think secondhand ICE cars prices will fall from the historic highs we are seeing at the moment by a good percentage by the end of 2024 especially the bigger engined cars - my two cars combined VED is just shy of £600 (290 each) so a bit of a dampener for another purchaser.
A lot depends on where new EV car prices are heading with the Chinese looking to flood the EU with cheap offerings anything can happen the EU are already panicking and threatening to put a high import duty on them to protect domestic manufacturers.

Do you mean all ICE cars currently or just novelty/performance/sport cars? I am hoping to keep this thread specifically on the latter, because current appliance ICE cars will no doubt become worthless in short order, they all ready depreciate in near straight line towards zero.

Whereas desirable car values fluctuate because they are still desirable in a sense.

I can't understand why people talk about the VED issue.. the zero (low) amount for EVs is a honeymoon, policy thing. Down the road these will absolutely be taxes on the power output of the motor, or possibly the size/weight of the car, but there will be no free lunch.

I believe that classic cars which are totally mechanical, no electronics, like the MGA, MG B, XK Jaguars etc.. will hold their values well.

Sadly ones like my R230 SL will probably continue to depreciate.

NJSS

I wouldn't go as far as you are suggesting. You have totally mechanical cars and then cars with ECUs, EFI etc.... and then you have things like the R230 SL.

I feel like the R230 SL will never really appreciate as there is far too much scaremongering online about ABC and other gremlins.. but I think people will be able to cope with an ECU etc..

I love my R230 SL and will keep it and maintain it for me.. but anybody who thinks they are good investments should think again.

I think ice car values will drop as EV cars take more of the market until the realisation of keeping an older EV on the road hits, then the value of ice cars will rise due to demand.

Do you mean ICE in general or sporty/desirable cars?

I see ICE cars holding their values similar to today until the time comes the government of the day decided to tax fuel so much that owners cannot afford to run them. Only the very wealthy will be able to afford to run/tax them.
Genghis Khan is doing something similar in London with the extended ULEZ zoning forcing perfectly good cars to become practically worthless inside London.

Do you reckon they will lay on the tax so much like that? It may continue for another while.. but part of me thinks that when the population reaches critical mass with EV, the government will take their eyes off combustion fuels.. and focus on how they wring the blood from EV drivers.. who are fast becoming "immortals" in their eyes who can do no wrong....

Rishi Sunak having second thoughts it appears. Could it be because a GE date is coming soon?
Nah, that's too cynical

Rishi Sunak considers weakening key green policies

Plans could include delaying a ban on sales of new petrol cars and the phasing out of gas boilers.

www.bbc.co.uk

I've said it from day one.. the 2030 ban will be introduced when it suits industry (and ultimately politicians).

 

[star]

I see ICE cars holding their values similar to today until the time comes the government of the day decided to tax fuel so much that owners cannot afford to run them. Only the very wealthy will be able to afford to run/tax them.
Genghis Khan is doing something similar in London with the extended ULEZ zoning forcing perfectly good cars to become practically worthless inside London.

I agree there will be a shortfall in revenue as there will be less ice vehicles to tax and the gov will turn to ev’s for the shortfall. I don’t think it’ll be the tax that’ll drop the price of second hand evs, it’ll be the cost of replacing batteries, ac compressors and the like.

 

[M80]

The lack of available spare parts for the ICE mo mo is surely going to be an increasing issue.
While a healthy market for unhealthy aftermarket spares will grow the reliability (lack of) of the cars when such are fitted will deter ownership.
And even that healthy market will diminish as less owners / cars exist.

I have no desire to move from ICE as I don't feel a feasible replacement is going to be available anytime soon, that being for a few reasons.
But as the road tax, fuel cost and difficulty of obtaining suitable spares makes running my ICE's less feasible I'll need reconsider.

In short Conor I feel ICE ownership will become for the enthusiast, so for the classy collector type mo mo. Others are for the scrap 'eap of spares shelves till there isn't enough financial sense in those dealings.
Those special motors will have value to the limited market of enthusiasts, who take them out on Sundays.
The cost of ownership is going to remove any increased value advantage.

But I may be wrong.

 

[malcolm E53 AMG]

With general taxation the highest in 70 years the government has plenty of headroom to subsidise EV RFL so I see little change there the biggest problem is the extremely high price of purchasing an EV which the Chinese offerings can solve - the other issues with running an EV are the charging infrastructure and the fact that energy prices have spiked making owning one less attractive.
As for the future of ICE cars Sunak moving the goalposts to 2035 will lift the cloud over owning one so prices will hold up for the immediate future but RFL will continue to rise as a carrot to buy an EV making them less attractive.
There will always be ICE enthusiasts and as you say they will be weekend cars the high fuel costs and parts availability will see to that

 

[Wearsafoxhat]

Rishi Sunak having second thoughts it appears. Could it be because a GE date is coming soon?
Nah, that's too cynical

Rishi Sunak considers weakening key green policies

Plans could include delaying a ban on sales of new petrol cars and the phasing out of gas boilers.

www.bbc.co.uk

or maybe he hasn’t had chance to line his family and friends up with lucrative contracts…. not that I am cynical either…

 

[Wighty]

I think the value of ice cars going forward depends on part’s availability to keep them going