Brexit

[Frontstep]

Since when has rhetoric determined the economic performance? Funnily enough I always thought it was measured on indicators such as GDP, inflation, balance of payments, unemployment etc...?

And since when were lefties self serving? The whole 'lefty' ethos is equality and fairness and social responsibility.

You just keep your head well and truly buried in your **** (insert 4 letter word of choice here). It'll all be wonderful (Frontstep says so).

Errh no rhetoric is very important depressed people fearful of their futures don't invest or spend it is very important that the constant drip of fake bad news is stopped.
The survey results below are all about the magic word "confidence"
I do it appears have the advantage of commercial experience and success.
When we have actually left and we have tangible numbers by all means post them, we are at the moment getting fear factor guesstimates from amateur soothsayers.
I am very confident about the opportunities but it does require some collective enthusiasm going out to lose is not a mindset for success.




United Kingdom Business Confidence 1958-2017 | Data | Chart | Calendar
The CBI Business Optimism in the UK rose to 5 in the third quarter of 2017 from 1 in the previous period as production among manufacturers grew at the fastest pace since January 1995 in the three months to July while growth in total orders moderated. Also, output is expected to continue to grow strongly over the next quarter and manufacturers are upbeat about prospects for overall demand. Meanwhile, export optimism for the year ahead eased to 13 from 30 in the second quarter.

 

[LostKiwi]

Caused mainly by the ****** who cannot accept a democratic decision.

Agreed that not all is rosy. Shame the country as a whole cannot accept the decision and get on with things. Much like we who object to the EU have had to do for the last 20 odd years.

As for going down the pan. The last report said that our economy is still growing???? Ok not as fast as others or predictions but growing.

As for those stats on the PIGS .... Given how wrecked their economies are, any improvement is seen as massive. I'm sure all the Greeks would swap our economic situation with theirs.

On the contrary I think many have accepted a democratic decision , but accepting it doesn't mean they have to like it. Yes our economy is still growing but the rate of growth is falling, inflation is rising, consumer spending is falling (more about money in pockets than confidence), and exports aren't growing at the expected rate (don't see how thats related to confidence either).
Lets also note that those 'wrecked' economies are in the main growing faster than ours....

 

[davemercedes]

Caused mainly by the ****** who cannot accept a democratic decision.

Agreed that not all is rosy. Shame the country as a whole cannot accept the decision and get on with things. Much like we who object to the EU have had to do for the last 20 odd years.

As for going down the pan. The last report said that our economy is still growing???? Ok not as fast as others or predictions but growing.

As for those stats on the PIGS .... Given how wrecked their economies are, any improvement is seen as massive. I'm sure all the Greeks would swap our economic situation with theirs.

I presume your expletive deleted is another (inaccurate) dig at me... as usual putting untrue words in my mouth. I said from the very beginning that I accepted the result of the vote but you won't stop me pointing out what Brexit and the appalling way this government have been (and still are) handling it is doing to our country.

The last reports about growth (or lack of) - (FACTS from two organisations - one representing businesses and t'other a government statistical office) : -

The Office National Statistics confirmed on Thursday the economy grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter after 0.2 percent in the first -- adding up to the slowest growth for any major advanced economy since the start of 2017.
- The data showed negligible growth in household spending and flat business investment.
- A separate report suggested the malaise will continue.
- The CBI said retail sales growth slowed in August at the fastest pace in more than a year.

Flat year-on-year business investment undershot economists’ expectations for a modest 0.5 percent rise, while net trade contributed nothing to quarterly growth and acted as a 0.5 percent drag on Britain’s annual performance.

Many will see the news from other official data on Thursday that showed net migration to Britain fell to a three-year low of 246,000 in the 12 months to March, as fewer EU immigrants arrived and growing numbers left.

But the trouble with that is the companies who employ them now won't be able to make/deliver the goods (BIG warning from the food industry last week) so due to Mayhem's appalling performance where they just haven't known where they stand, they have started to leave (and in any case all the Polish plumbers everybody likes to joke about will tell you with the crap pound it's not worth being here any more). So we will lose the business they would have fulfilled and the taxes the EU people paid while they lived here are already gone (and they'll be getting rebates too).

Still, our exports (of jobs that is) will be on the up soon... Reuters 1 x day ago reported that European cities from Amsterdam to Zagreb have lined up sweetheart deals including free rents, landmark buildings and tailor-made relocation services in a race to house two prestigious EU agencies that will leave London after Brexit (no speculation here, then). They gave employee numbers at these agencies - The European Medicines Agency (EMA) and European Banking Authority (EBA) - 890 and 170 respectively.

In a side article, they report that Frankfurt has ambitions to be a financial centre like London and it says that analysis predicts there will 10,000 bankers and finance professionals there within four years and that their arrival could create more than 41,000 further jobs, from estate agents to taxi drivers and building workers. Now that of course is speculation but if they achieve only half of it we will be losing out.

- You're right. It's not all rosy.

 

[triumphstag]

I presume your expletive deleted is another (inaccurate) dig at me... as usual putting untrue words in my mouth. I said from the very beginning that I accepted the result of the vote but you won't stop me pointing out what Brexit and the appalling way this government have been (and still are) handling it is doing to our country.

It wasn't aimed at you actually, but if the cap fits......

If this is your idea of accepting something, I would hate to see your idea of not accepting something.

To most people, accepting something means getting on with it, and making the best of it, not looking for every possible negative report and going "look, look"

You don't accept the result, that's fine. At least be honest enough to admit that.

 

[triumphstag]

our country.

The last reports about growth (or lack of) - (FACTS the economy grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter after 0.2 percent in the first --

So the economy IS growing then. Thanks for confirming.

 

[davemercedes]

So the economy IS growing then. Thanks for confirming.

I only ever have quoted what reports say - not being a politician, I don't make them up or change them. But I notice you conveniently omitted the overrider about it "adding up to the slowest growth for any major advanced economy since the start of 2017" !. But it's only growing because the packets of things we buy are smaller (but cost the same) and I know that doesn't bother you because you told me "you're all right" !

 

[triumphstag]

I only ever have quoted what reports say - not being a politician, I don't make them up or change them. But I notice you conveniently omitted the overrider about it "adding up to the slowest growth for any major advanced economy since the start of 2017" !. But it's only growing because the packets of things we buy are smaller (but cost the same) and I know that doesn't bother you because you told me "you're all right" !

I think you will find I told you I have also had a financial hit due to the weakened pound (somewhat offset now), but never mind, feel free to keep making assumptions

Anyway. It's the weekend. Lots planned so enjoy.

 

[tjamesbo]

exchange rate to euro now 1.08 was 1.46 in 2006 was 1.3 prior to brexit, but according to all the pro brexit newspapers its all going stunningly well , so how come the whole of the rest of the world doesnt think so ?? no one wants the pound we're slowly becoming a tin pot state a fact supported by the exchange rate
Great news for all the imports that come from the EU how much they need us, how much we import from them and we're now paying the increased prices so whose the fool ???? still we 're going to save 350 million, oh no that was a lie , Great Success Innit . jam tomorrow??? ( dont hold your breath ) and when ( and if )we free (no such thing as a free lunch ) trade with the rest of the world and the government loses the import tax revenue it currently gets ??? who will make up that deficiency ...... The UK taxpayer Tin Pot State here we come
Rant over ............

 

[triumphstag]

exchange rate to euro now 1.08 was 1.46 in 2006 was 1.3 prior to brexit, but according to all the pro brexit newspapers its all going stunningly well , so how come the whole of the rest of the world doesnt think so ?? no one wants the pound we're slowly becoming a tin pot state a fact supported by the exchange rate
Great news for all the imports that come from the EU how much they need us, how much we import from them and we're now paying the increased prices so whose the fool ???? still we 're going to save 350 million, oh no that was a lie , Great Success Innit . jam tomorrow??? ( dont hold your breath ) and when ( and if )we free (no such thing as a free lunch ) trade with the rest of the world and the government loses the import tax revenue it currently gets ??? who will make up that deficiency ...... The UK taxpayer Tin Pot State here we come
Rant over ............

Feel better now?

 

[Yugguy]

Markets and exchange rates are driven by greed and fear. They're not a lot of use for long-term planning.

 

[tjamesbo]

More successful Brexit News .The £1bn given by European Investment Bank to UK social housing projects last year makes it the sector’s biggest investor. This week it was confirmed that this investment would stop

 

[Xtractorfan]

I hate arguments, they are like cars, there is always someone out there with a better one.

 

[geraldrobins]

More successful Brexit News .The £1bn given by European Investment Bank to UK social housing projects last year makes it the sector’s biggest investor. This week it was confirmed that this investment would stop

Once we stop our contributions to the EU we cant expect EU contributions back surely.

 

[MalcQV]

I hate arguments, they are like cars, there is always someone out there with a better one.

I think I'll take the Ferrari out this weekend

 

[davemercedes]

Markets and exchange rates are driven by greed and fear. They're not a lot of use for long-term planning.

- They're not a lot of use at the supermarket check out either!

 

[davidsl500]

exchange rate to euro now 1.08 was 1.46 in 2006 was 1.3 prior to brexit, but according to all the pro brexit newspapers its all going stunningly well , so how come the whole of the rest of the world doesnt think so ?? no one wants the pound we're slowly becoming a tin pot state a fact supported by the exchange rate
............

December 2008 the exchange rate was 1.10, most of 2009 was sub 1.15 with it dipping to 1.086, in 2011 it was between 1.16 and 1.12 for the whole year. Its nothing new really. The Dollar is on the way down against the Euro this year as well. This Brexit has far reaching effects!

 

[davemercedes]

exchange rate to euro now 1.08 was 1.46 in 2006 was 1.3 prior to brexit, but according to all the pro brexit newspapers its all going stunningly well , so how come the whole of the rest of the world doesnt think so ?? no one wants the pound we're slowly becoming a tin pot state a fact supported by the exchange rate
Great news for all the imports that come from the EU how much they need us, how much we import from them and we're now paying the increased prices so whose the fool ???? still we 're going to save 350 million, oh no that was a lie , Great Success Innit . jam tomorrow??? ( dont hold your breath ) and when ( and if )we free (no such thing as a free lunch ) trade with the rest of the world and the government loses the import tax revenue it currently gets ??? who will make up that deficiency ...... The UK taxpayer Tin Pot State here we come
Rant over ............

The pound is hanging on at 1.0762 (-0.29%) today - it hit 1.08 earlier.

As you say, the Brexquitters claim it's all going terrifically well... I think it's going terrifically well, awful. And still today the "negotiations" with the EU continue with the same arrogance as before. Mayhem and her crew don't seem to realise that we are leaving the other 27 - it's not the other way round - so we have no right to any favours!

Here are the headline points from Reuters this weekend. Even the slightly positive reports are tinged with dread:

Britain heads back to the Brexit table, plans in hand, economy in decline
http://uk.reuters.com/business/economy

UK consumer morale edges up but gloom over finances deepens - YouGov/Cebr
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-consumersentiment-idUKKCN1B42SO
“…consumers’ perception of household finances worsened for a fifth month in a row, the longest run since YouGov records started eight years ago.”

UK shop sales slide unexpectedly in August, retailers' mood downbeat - CBI
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail-idUKKCN1B412N

Brexit fears slow British growth, hit consumers and businesses
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-economy-idUKKCN1B40TX

UK mortgage approvals rebound to five-month high in July - UK Finance
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-lending-bba-idUKKCN1B40S4

EU worker exodus threatens UK food industry, some leaving already – survey
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-food-idUKKCN1B32Q1

Scottish budget deficit falls, but still triple the UK's gap
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-scotland-idUKKCN1B30UA
“The budget deficit, including a share of North Sea oil revenues, was 8.3 percent of GDP in the 2016/17 tax year or £13.3 BN, down from 9.3 percent in 2015/16, Scottish government data showed on Wednesday. That compares with a deficit of 2.3 percent of GDP in the UK as a whole. It is also well above the European Union’s budget deficit target of 3 percent.”

Britain posts first July budget surplus in 15 years, outlook darker
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-budget-idUKKCN1B20RP

“Britain’s government has paid out 21.6 billion pounds in debt interest payments during the first four months of 2017/18 financial year, the largest total for any April-July period on record and up 23 percent on 2016/17 …
- In July alone, debt interest payments totalled £4.9BN, up 18 percent on a year ago.”

UK factories' output expectations highest since March as orders rise – CBI
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-manufacturing-cbi-idUKKCN1B20ZP

25 August 2017
Pound Sterling Registers Mild Gains Following UK Q2 GDP
…”inched up from 0.2% to 0.3% in the second quarter of the year.
£ struggled to hold onto its gains through the session as traders delved into the data and took a negative outlook. Investors were concerned by a deceleration in business investment from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.0% in Q2 and a notable dip in consumer spending to a two-and-a-half-year low of 0.1%. Analysts blamed the drop-off in business investment on uncertainty created by Brexit, while the softer consumer spending figures were seen to represent the logical outcome of falling real wage growth (wages rising slower than inflation).

£to€ Exchange Rate Close to 8-Year Low Ahead of Draghi’s Jackson Hole Speech
The rate rebounded from an eight-year low yesterday, rallying by around half a cent in reaction to the second quarter UK GDP report. However £ failed to hold onto its gains and found itself languishing close to multi-year lows by the end of the day.

Reports suggest policymakers at the ECB are concerned with the Euro’s recent rise, as they believe it could impact their efforts to drive inflation higher in the bloc, which could prompt ECB President Mario Draghi to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Under this scenario we could see £/€ break higher.

Pound to Canadian Dollar Near 7-Month Low
Pound to Australian Dollar Rate Remains Close to 5-Month Low
Pound to New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate Rises 30 Pips

Slow divorce risks leaving future Britain-EU ties in limbo Reuters 25 August
Divisions between GB and EU over mapping out the divorce will be laid bare in Brussels next week when the two sides meet for another round of talks whose timetable already looks tight.

Britain will not pay "a penny more" than it thinks right to leave EU - Johnson Reuters 25 Aug 2017
Bumbling Boris is whistling a different tune now…

Has 'ambitious' PM May aimed too high with EU demands? Reuters 25 Aug 2017
LONDON (Reuters) – PM Theresa May always said she would be “ambitious” in negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union, and government documents published this month show the scale of that ambition -- wanting the closest of ties without the costs.
But the new British proposals for future ties with the EU have been dismissed in Brussels as “fantasy” and no more than an “intra-UK debate”. European officials have suggested that Britain should instead stick to a previously agreed timetable for Brexit negotiations.

I expect this post to be followed as usual, by Brexquitters saying it's all in our best interest etc.

 

[Frontstep]

Its actually quite a sad posting reveling in perceived misery.
I am sure you can drive yourself into a self fulfilling spiral of decline.
Hopefully those who employ people and work will have a different mindset and of the ones I mix in thankfully they have.
Its redolent of the outpourings of a spurned spouse after a divorce.
As a small test try looking for one positive in every 5 reports to help give your life some balance.

 

[LostKiwi]

The pound is hanging on at 1.0762 (-0.29%) today - it hit 1.08 earlier.

As you say, the Brexquitters claim it's all going terrifically well... I think it's going terrifically well, awful. And still today the "negotiations" with the EU continue with the same arrogance as before. Mayhem and her crew don't seem to realise that we are leaving the other 27 - it's not the other way round - so we have no right to any favours!

Here are the headline points from Reuters this weekend. Even the slightly positive reports are tinged with dread:

Britain heads back to the Brexit table, plans in hand, economy in decline
http://uk.reuters.com/business/economy

UK consumer morale edges up but gloom over finances deepens - YouGov/Cebr
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-consumersentiment-idUKKCN1B42SO
“…consumers’ perception of household finances worsened for a fifth month in a row, the longest run since YouGov records started eight years ago.”

UK shop sales slide unexpectedly in August, retailers' mood downbeat - CBI
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail-idUKKCN1B412N

Brexit fears slow British growth, hit consumers and businesses
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-economy-idUKKCN1B40TX

UK mortgage approvals rebound to five-month high in July - UK Finance
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-lending-bba-idUKKCN1B40S4

EU worker exodus threatens UK food industry, some leaving already – survey
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-food-idUKKCN1B32Q1

Scottish budget deficit falls, but still triple the UK's gap
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-scotland-idUKKCN1B30UA
“The budget deficit, including a share of North Sea oil revenues, was 8.3 percent of GDP in the 2016/17 tax year or £13.3 BN, down from 9.3 percent in 2015/16, Scottish government data showed on Wednesday. That compares with a deficit of 2.3 percent of GDP in the UK as a whole. It is also well above the European Union’s budget deficit target of 3 percent.”

Britain posts first July budget surplus in 15 years, outlook darker
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-budget-idUKKCN1B20RP

“Britain’s government has paid out 21.6 billion pounds in debt interest payments during the first four months of 2017/18 financial year, the largest total for any April-July period on record and up 23 percent on 2016/17 …
- In July alone, debt interest payments totalled £4.9BN, up 18 percent on a year ago.”

UK factories' output expectations highest since March as orders rise – CBI
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-manufacturing-cbi-idUKKCN1B20ZP

25 August 2017
Pound Sterling Registers Mild Gains Following UK Q2 GDP
…”inched up from 0.2% to 0.3% in the second quarter of the year.
£ struggled to hold onto its gains through the session as traders delved into the data and took a negative outlook. Investors were concerned by a deceleration in business investment from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.0% in Q2 and a notable dip in consumer spending to a two-and-a-half-year low of 0.1%. Analysts blamed the drop-off in business investment on uncertainty created by Brexit, while the softer consumer spending figures were seen to represent the logical outcome of falling real wage growth (wages rising slower than inflation).

£to€ Exchange Rate Close to 8-Year Low Ahead of Draghi’s Jackson Hole Speech
The rate rebounded from an eight-year low yesterday, rallying by around half a cent in reaction to the second quarter UK GDP report. However £ failed to hold onto its gains and found itself languishing close to multi-year lows by the end of the day.

Reports suggest policymakers at the ECB are concerned with the Euro’s recent rise, as they believe it could impact their efforts to drive inflation higher in the bloc, which could prompt ECB President Mario Draghi to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Under this scenario we could see £/€ break higher.

Pound to Canadian Dollar Near 7-Month Low
Pound to Australian Dollar Rate Remains Close to 5-Month Low
Pound to New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate Rises 30 Pips

Slow divorce risks leaving future Britain-EU ties in limbo Reuters 25 August
Divisions between GB and EU over mapping out the divorce will be laid bare in Brussels next week when the two sides meet for another round of talks whose timetable already looks tight.

Britain will not pay "a penny more" than it thinks right to leave EU - Johnson Reuters 25 Aug 2017
Bumbling Boris is whistling a different tune now…

Has 'ambitious' PM May aimed too high with EU demands? Reuters 25 Aug 2017
LONDON (Reuters) – PM Theresa May always said she would be “ambitious” in negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union, and government documents published this month show the scale of that ambition -- wanting the closest of ties without the costs.
But the new British proposals for future ties with the EU have been dismissed in Brussels as “fantasy” and no more than an “intra-UK debate”. European officials have suggested that Britain should instead stick to a previously agreed timetable for Brexit negotiations.

I expect this post to be followed as usual, by Brexquitters saying it's all in our best interest etc.

As expected they just belittled you and dismissed your observations as it wasn't what they wanted to hear.

 

[davemercedes]

Yes, LK There are none so deaf as those who don't want to hear.

Frontstep: if you would bother to read the items covered by the links you would see that those who employ people and work - your words) have the EXACT mindset where they are pointing out that what is going on is WRONG and gives no security for the future. - Even this week German and UK companies have jointly said that we NEED a period of so called 'soft Brexit' but Mayhem still pursues her "no agreement is better" crap. Still, you just leave your head where you can't see what is happening and keep telling yourself it's all fine but don't expect any sympathy when the penny (if there are any left!) finally drops!

I should be astounded at your response but frankly I've seen it all on here. Meanwhile due to the appalling state of our government and Mayhem in particular, our country is being derided as a total laughing stock throughout Europe due to the continuing arrogance adopted in our "negotiations" - if it wasn't tragic it would be quite amusing! Meanwhile as our country's purchasing power goes further down the tube because the pound is worth so little and our nation's debt for interest incurred gets higher and higher (as illustrated above - quote: “Britain’s government has paid out 21.6 billion pounds in debt interest payments during the first four months of 2017/18"). What you see is no lie but you obviously didn't bother to read the details) and already we have spent £21.6BN more of my grandchildrens' future.

The postings above came from Reuters on Saturday/Sunday - I omitted none of the headlines and included potentially hopeful news. But unfortunately Frontstep's 1 in 5 theorem doesn't work - any more than the ridiculous arrogant approach Mayhem's representative has adopted this week - telling the other 27 nations of the present EU that they need to be imaginative in their approach!

I thought I'd try this method and phoned my Broadband/Tel/Media company and I told them that I wanted to leave under the authority specified in Article 50 of the European Union Agreement... BUT I pointed out that I wasn't prepared to discuss all the paragraphs in the standard termination document (even though they were extracted from my agreement contract) and I told them quite plainly that they needed to be "imaginative" because I expected to get ALL the services I get currently - but of course at no further cost whatsoever.

At that point my assistant (known affectionately as Mumbling Morris) threatened to go and whistle...
- Then the stupid people refused my demands!
- What is the matter with them?