Brexit

[keefysher]

And finally the first bit of unhyped media reporting too.

Remember, Germany is 1/27 strictly but the reality is it’s more 10/27 with France representing another 10.

So back to brass tacks, the EU has tacitly admitted that they want trade deals with us PDQ and in order to get them, please can we sort out how much we will pay. That’s actual negotiation and the first real indication we have had of what has been going on- which is to say that, under the table, our diplomats have been engaging with their diplomats to make a politically- palatable deal possible. And given the timeframe we have seen, I’d say that is both credible and a good job. (That represents a huge amount of work...)

It always takes unseen effort to flush things out (remember stages of a project - praise and honours for the non participants, search for the guilty, punishment of the innocent). It usually comes down to money too, as appears here.

Many years ago, can't say where, had a very difficult situation to resolve. It came down to money as per usual. The client didn't want to pay for their mistakes. Whilst negotiations were ongoing at Board level, little ole me was on the ground creating a perfect storm. The client didn't realise their saleable stockpile was being eroded at pace, their feedstocks were being restrained to prevent production. Got to a point where I took the team off the ground and went and hid in a seaside resort incommunicado from client, but in contact with my boss. Client finally realised they were at a point of no return in terms of a viable business if their customers were let down, went into panic searching for the team. I popped up and explained a meeting at a location away from their HQ which was where most business was done, at 7 o'clock the following day was available as my boss was entering the country sometime soon. Following morning the panic had risen as client Board were at venue but we weren't. They assumed 7am, we meant 7pm, which was when their culture caused problems!! We walked in, explained we were walking away with no deal. Client were cocky until they were presented with the state of their plant with no feedstock, no stockpile, on the verge of meltdown. We won, got paid and expanded their operations. It takes balls, and doesn't happen often in a lifetime, synergy?

So, who's got the biggest balls Uk or EU?

 

[LostKiwi]

They bribed Greece with riches and where are they now?

This year for two successive quarters (and the first time since 2006) the Greek economy showed positive growth.

 

[Yugguy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41684111

I think behind the scenes there is a lot of "feck, we'd better crack on with this."

 

[M80]

This year for two successive quarters (and the first time since 2006) the Greek economy showed positive growth.

I believe you.
But how much must its economy grow before it can be self sustaining and not a net burden to the eu?
That ignores the massive loans that are unlikely to be recovered, so if it ever became self sustaining it would still be an overall loss to the eu, aside from its geographical location that may be a consideration of the eu military dreams, a possible motive for the loans to increase its military capabilities.

There are many other eu members that are an overall financial burden to the eu. The reallocation of wealth from the richer members incentivised by the richer members companies enjoying sales to the poorer members and so creating tax revenues that can only effectively be paid for by taxes from the populations of the richer members.
If those populations are seeing increased employment and enjoying better salaries, and so there is an increase in the standard of living for the masses it will get by. That 'aint happening so more dissent.

Too many see the disparities between the every day Joe and Joeess and those that lead us, especially those that swan about in Brussels, as getting wider. We should just have faith in the eu concept as the eu Parliament works in mysterious ways. It is intentionally over complicated so it can disguise its deceit imho.

 

[LostKiwi]

I believe you.
But how much must its economy grow before it can be self sustaining and not a net burden to the eu?
That ignores the massive loans that are unlikely to be recovered, so if it ever became self sustaining it would still be an overall loss to the eu, aside from its geographical location that may be a consideration of the eu military dreams, a possible motive for the loans to increase its military capabilities.

There are many other eu members that are an overall financial burden to the eu. The reallocation of wealth from the richer members incentivised by the richer members companies enjoying sales to the poorer members and so creating tax revenues that can only effectively be paid for by taxes from the populations of the richer members.
If those populations are seeing increased employment and enjoying better salaries, and so there is an increase in the standard of living for the masses it will get by. That 'aint happening so more dissent.

Too many see the disparities between the every day Joe and Joeess and those that lead us, especially those that swan about in Brussels, as getting wider. We should just have faith in the eu concept as the eu Parliament works in mysterious ways. It is intentionally over complicated so it can disguise its deceit imho.

And this is different in what way to the valleys of South Wales which are a burden on the UK?
Or the deprived areas of the North of England which are a burden to the UK?
We could add Scotland to that as well.
Should we do nothing? Or cast them adrift? Or maybe stop selling them Sky subscriptions, alcohol, cigarettes and iPhones?

At least the EU has done something to try and help those less well off parts of the whole.

The disparity between the average man and those in positions of power is everywhere. How many in Westminister have ever been reliant on Income Support (or Job Seekers allowance or whatever the current name for it is). Yet we accept that in this country.

 

[M80]

And this is different in what way to the valleys of South Wales which are a burden on the UK?
Or the deprived areas of the North of England which are a burden to the UK?
We could add Scotland to that as well.
Should we do nothing? Or cast them adrift? Or maybe stop selling them Sky subscriptions, alcohol, cigarettes and iPhones?

At least the EU has done something to try and help those less well off parts of the whole.

The disparity between the average man and those in positions of power is everywhere. How many in Westminister have ever been reliant on Income Support (or Job Seekers allowance or whatever the current name for it is). Yet we accept that in this country.

There may be similarities.
As a nation we accept the responsibilities within our borders, but not always easily, as ours as a nation.
As a member of the eu the acceptance of responsibility of other members is far less easy.
If a motive of the eu is to keep profits of big business flowing done by artificially funding the buyers it won't sit easily.
We don't have a history with these poorer members that cause us to accept responsibility for their situation.

Although back in the early 40's we did take on some responsibility granted, flippin' expensive that was too.

 

[Craiglxviii]

And this is different in what way to the valleys of South Wales which are a burden on the UK?
Or the deprived areas of the North of England which are a burden to the UK?
We could add Scotland to that as well.
Should we do nothing? Or cast them adrift? Or maybe stop selling them Sky subscriptions, alcohol, cigarettes and iPhones?

At least the EU has done something to try and help those less well off parts of the whole.

The disparity between the average man and those in positions of power is everywhere. How many in Westminister have ever been reliant on Income Support (or Job Seekers allowance or whatever the current name for it is). Yet we accept that in this country.

However we have been addressing those issues since before the Great War in some cases.

Scotland has the Barnett Formula. Scotland and Wales have their own devolved governments with independent tax-raising powers. Scotland, Wales and the North East have had significant investment over many years specifically to stimulate growth and increase the employment rate. From memory Scotland has had 2/3 of all surface warship construction since 1945 (and around 50% before that) for one example that I can think of; the North West has had most of the BBC move up there (do you think Auntie had a choice?); the North East has had Team Valley, the Sunderland plant (and its local suppliers) and NEPIC in Teesside; Wales had a steel industry unwilling in itself to change supported by the government for many years.

Should we do nothing? We, the nation as a whole have done rather a lot to address the issues. Is it perfect? No. In contrast is the EU perfect? Not in the least. The Euro sits atop a lot of those issues- how can a Lithuanian baker's time be compared to an Italian farmer's? Well they can, now, without anything else getting in the way of it just by one currency.

The EU started off as a way to forever prevent another war between France & Germany. It has translated that into a Federalised Europe, but done it in a way that doesn't include the opinions of those living in Europe.

 

[davemercedes]

Last night with QT over, for a change there was 'some' glimmer of reasonable conversation on it last night.
Onto This Week and a more rigorous and sarcastic view of the political goings on.

Last night they had Yanis Varoufakis as a guest, the ex Greek finance minister.
I could never appreciate how Greece having had so much from the eu, and couldn't meet its repayment commitments could demand more from the eu. In true eu style because they could they did, and the threat of failure by Greece was more than the eu wanted to chance. Better it gets deferred until the masses are concentrating on other matters. But Greece wasn't last nights discussion.

I've seen Mr Yanis V before, on Hard Talk if memory serves, and I was surprised for some reason as to how intelligent and cohesive his thoughts and arguments were, last night he was similar.
He raised the question of if the eu is going to fail. All on the sofas agreed that the eu wasn't going to achieve the closer federalism with its desired army.
More relevant in the shorter term, how long don't know, but the Euro was always destined to fail and when that failed the eu was doomed.
There is anti eu dissent across Europe. Even if those nationalist parties don't win the election it's a mistake to think the bad feeling of many millions has gone away and for the election winners to become complacent. Although UKIP are pretty much finished here (some one should tell 'em, outa' kindness) it doesn't mean those that appreciated its purpose are now happy with the state of things. The dissent is just waiting to be given direction, sometimes that becomes an extreme direction, unfortunately.

It was stated last night that eu members becoming insular with increased nationalism and stronger borders wasn't going to resolve the issues within Europe. What is needed is a working together to find answers. In some ways that is what the eu is, apart from the eu only working for what those at the top think the eu should be. Their intransigence demonstrates that their suspect policies are set in stone. Their dictatorial attitude will only serve to alienate more in the future than are already alienated now.

They bribed Greece with riches and where are they now?
Those lesser economically capable eu members can only enjoy their bribes if the richer members can continue to fund it so the affect of the loss of our contribution is significant. And beside the eu build up a poorer state, in theory, so it will become a future contributor. The poorer will, in theory, increase its output and become a profitable entity. But that isn't happening. The poorer states continue to soak up the grants like sponges, how long can / will the richer members finance that? The principle of providing finance, in whatever fashion, to the poorer states so that they can artificially generate business for the richer, over producing, members must ultimately reach its unsustainable conclusion.

Our pain of leaving, hopefully short term pain but me crystal ball's got flat batteries, although undesirable would be a later pain anyway.

Funny, over the last year the Euro has been stronger and stronger while the £ is being reduced to wallpaper. Anyone spending Euros to buy sterling these days gets a nice little earner!

Still, your post make a pleasant change... last time Greece was mentioned virtually everybody here blamed their financial problems on the EU! The same EU that lent them money when their politicians asked for it and fiddled their financial status to qualify. That's the same EU that had repeatedly written off half their debt then half again and provided emergency budget money etc. Interestingly, nobody ever reported where all the borrowed money went, did they? And having had a few nice refunds, Mr Yanis Varoufakis is still blaming the lender for their default. The joke is that Greece still has what they borrowed.

imo I would say that far from being intelligent, Varoufakis is cunning. It couldn't have been planned better except that just like everywhere else "ordinary people" were told "eímaste óloi mazí se aftó (we're all in this together!) except just like our austerity planning some people were more "together" than others. The Greek people suffered badly while as usual some made boatloads of wonga. Nothing ever changes.

But if all who voted to leave would be truthfully honest instead of saying everything in the garden is lovely I'm sure nobody expected all problems and financial crash we're going through - with still more to come.

But hopefully, the olive branch Merkel proferred yesterday will have some fruit on it. If it turns round now I still don't believe for one minute that May's threatening "no deal" speech strengthened our position - more likely it caused phase one of the "negotiations" to take an extra 12-15 months.

 

[davemercedes]

Totally agree Craig, despite all the posturing and rhetoric a deal HAS to be done the alternative is political suicide for all parties involved, reality dawns you could say

I note the head of Goldman Sachs Europe isn’t happy which I take as a good sign

So we're not really heading for a negotiated settlement are we? David Davis's show has just been a front for what in the end will be a political agreement. I just hope every little wrinkle is examined in parliament line by line because as I've said repeatedly, the same breed - i.e.: politicians, who did absolutely nothing about the issues with the EU are the same breed we are trusting (well, watching) hopefully get this agreement sorted.

 

[Yugguy]

But if all who voted to leave would be truthfully honest instead of saying everything in the garden is lovely I'm sure nobody expected all problems and financial crash we're going through - with still more to come.s.

NOONE IS SAYING THIS!!!!!!

I'm not. I knew it would be hard and I doubted it would be done in 2 years.

However I do think we will get there.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41684111

 

[triumphstag]

I wasn't talking to you. I was talking about a false/incorrect comment made about me.
- So if you can't contribute to that conversation, just go away.

Afraid that is not going to happen. If you post drivel on a public forum, I will reply. If you don't like that, tough.

As for contributing to the conversation, I think my statement smed things up perfectly.

I haven't been online for a few days (away with work) and I see that your hyperbole/rant generator has gone into overdrive.

 

[bembo449]

i still don't understand why some of you still seem to suggest we need the EU ? merkels olive branch ? the germans sell so much gear over here from cars to washing machines , its us that should tender the branch imo

 

[davemercedes]

Afraid that is not going to happen. If you post drivel on a public forum, I will reply. If you don't like that, tough.

As for contributing to the conversation, I think my statement smed things up perfectly.

I haven't been online for a few days (away with work) and I see that your hyperbole/rant generator has gone into overdrive.

Then I'll just ignore your waffle then.

 

[bembo449]

c'mon dave , no point falling out , your both entitled to an opinion , right ?

 

[triumphstag]

c'mon dave , no point falling out , your both entitled to an opinion , right ?

Apparently not if you don't agree with Dave.

 

[davemercedes]

NOONE IS SAYING THIS!!!!!!

I'm not. I knew it would be hard and I doubted it would be done in 2 years.

However I do think we will get there.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41684111

You may have thought it might take more than two years, Yuggy but which did you believe - the truthful warnings of what would happen to things like prices, jobs, etc or the "Project Fear" riposte?

Unfortunately many here do imply on a day to day basis that it's all been going well when all you have to do is look at the headlines and Economy pages on Reuters and others to see the difficulties we're in already - long before we leave. Sometimes it seems a bit like Nero fiddling... but if I dare to point out problems I'm just being negative.

Similarly, politicians who are good at spending public money jump up and down telling Mayhem to take the "cliff" way out...

Of course, we must all hope it works out but already today the Beeb front page repeats that "EU leaders say that there is not enough progress to start trade talks yet, but they hope to begin in December".

So it's not all gift wrapped and depends what we offer next.

 

[davemercedes]

c'mon dave , no point falling out , your both entitled to an opinion , right ?

Whatever I say triumphstag says the opposite - so much for my being allowed an opinion.
- When I said recently that his post was offensive his reply was that he didn't care.
- So I haven't fallen out - I just won't bother responding.

 

[Yugguy]

I believed NEITHER. It's not a case of polar opposites, this is what you don't seem to get, yes I voted Leave, no I don't hate foreigners or read the daily mail or want a no deal situation.

 

[davemercedes]

i still don't understand why some of you still seem to suggest we need the EU ? merkels olive branch ? the germans sell so much gear over here from cars to washing machines , its us that should tender the branch imo

Yes, but haven't you seen the sums of who exports more etc. We are one country with Mayhem trying to dictate to 27.

For UK exports, trade in goods and services with the EU has declined in proportion, from 55% of UK exports in 2000 to 44% of UK exports in 2015 - most of the decline in the EU’s share of UK exports is due to goods, not services. Unfortunately everyone thought that a falling pound will create an export boom. It did help exporters (while the rest of us paid out more) but then the numbers came out which showed that Germany was way past us - even while our goods have been made so much cheaper.

And if it ends up with our goods being hit with import tariffs into the EU then our share will go down further won't it?

- So yes indeed, we certainly should be tendering the olive branch.

 

[davemercedes]

I believed NEITHER. It's not a case of polar opposites, this is what you don't seem to get, yes I voted Leave, no I don't hate foreigners or read the daily mail or want a no deal situation.

Good. Then the only difference is I voted to Remain.