Catalonia

[dry run]

I'd imagine there's some "Basque separatists" watching this one with interest.

 

[Yugguy]

You can't count those who did not vote. You can't use them on either side. You can only use those who did.

If a Leaver or a Remainer does not feel strongly enough to actually vote then their opinion should hold no weight politically.

 

[Craiglxviii]

I wonder if those who think the Catalonia situation is related to Spain'e EU membership would react in a hypothetical situation here in UK... e.g.: If Oxford - held an illegal referendum and then declared independence would the EU try to interfere? I think they would say it's an internal matter for the UK government.

But this also highlights the whole referendum "validity" question: the result of the Catalonia referendum was more "iffy" than ours - the turnout was 43.03% of which 92.01% voted Yes so just 39.59% of the population were in favour while we had a turnout of 72% with 52% in favour of leaving i.e.: 37.44% of our population.

There have been overall majorities lower than 37% of the electorate still winning elections...

 

[Craiglxviii]

What again?

The question right now is, what proportion of which units, military and police, identify as Catalan first and are willing to make the break with higher command, with their full establishment in tow?

 

[LostKiwi]

I'd imagine there's some "Basque separatists" watching this one with interest.

I think every separatist movement is....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Europe

 

[Craiglxviii]

I think every separatist movement is....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Europe

Lombardy and Veneto in Italy are making noises right now. Veneto in particular has something like 18% of global higher end kitchen furniture manufacture located in its bounds. Big valuable portion of economy right there...

 

[Naraic]

You can't count those who did not vote. You can't use them on either side. You can only use those who did.

If a Leaver or a Remainer does not feel strongly enough to actually vote then their opinion should hold no weight politically.

I think those who did not vote very much can be counted...but not for either side. If the vote was illegal then many many people would not have voted for that very reason and thus by and large those who did vote would very much have been on the side of independence.

The vote is irrelevant because of that.

If someone said they were going to have an illegal border poll in NI tomorrow I would not vote because it would be illegal. If the result was for yes...should that stand...no, of course not. This is not about not feeling strongly enough to vote...it was illegal, it has no standing whatsoever.

It there had been a legal vote the outcome may have been very different...we'll never know.

 

[d215yq]

I think those who did not vote very much can be counted...but not for either side. If the vote was illegal then many many people would not have voted for that very reason and thus by and large those who did vote would very much have been on the side of independence.

The vote is irrelevant because of that.

If someone said they were going to have an illegal border poll in NI tomorrow I would not vote because it would be illegal. If the result was for yes...should that stand...no, of course not. This is not about not feeling strongly enough to vote...it was illegal, it has no standing whatsoever.

It there had been a legal vote the outcome may have been very different...we'll never know.

Been back over the weekend and business as usual other than a lot of protesting on the Saturday with article 155 being used to reclaim all devolved powers. Even Madrid are not stupid enough to do that so they are essentially calling new elections for the parliament for January.

The thing is that 48% of the popular vote went for the seperatists last parliament, which resulted in a 51% majority in parliament as the three voting provinces that aren't barcelona get twice as many seats and these three provinces are more seperatist. The last elections, although seen of as a referendum by some as the two main parties ran together for independence (junts pel si - which incidentally took about 8 months of negotiation to set up), were still not necessarily seen by everyone as a one issue election.

It's hard to see how a dissolved parliament and fresh elections will not see all independence parties joining together and for it to be seen as a de facto referendum. It's also hard to see how a majority will not now back the independence party. The point of the (illegal) referendum was never to be the final act before creating an independent Catalunya, it was to start the process for independence. If an absolute popular majority goes to one party whose only manifesto promise is independence in the legal parliamentary elections Madrid themselves are calling I'd say they will now have far bigger claim to independence then this illegal referendum gives them and they know that. Add in the arrest of Puigdemont and pictures of him being hauled into a prison van with handcuffs and it's game over medium term. Whoever's side the police/army may initially be on the EU/international community would eventually not put up with that sort of stuff, and Spain isn't exactly in a great place economically to be able to take all of them on...

 

[Craiglxviii]

^^^ very succinct. And all because Rajoy hasn’t got the vision to see past his beard.

 

[LostKiwi]

Interesting map of what Europe would look like if all the secessionist groups had their way:

 

[Craiglxviii]

That’s pretty much just Europe anyway. The EU thing hasn’t touched on national identities...

 

[Yugguy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41780116

Well.

 

[LostKiwi]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41780116

Well.

Light blue touch paper....

 

[davemercedes]

Light blue touch paper....

It looks like they took a considered action to create a "martyr region".

But then, all of their for and against arguments in public was very much like the spoilt children in our cabinet over the last year.

 

[AMGeed]

I hope this can be resolved peacefully. Nobody needs a split in Spain and the threat of a civil war is very real.
The EU are keeping very quiet.

 

[M80]

The EU are keeping very quiet.

They should,
but I don't think their staying out will continue.

They want more not less. Catalonia independence means less, and they are stronger than the rest of Spain so the eu want their contribution.
Then surely pushing for a fast track membership for Catalonia would be right until they have demonstrated they can meet the required criteria, whatever that is supposed to be.

 

[AMGeed]

^ Do you think Madrid will ever bend to Catalonia's demand to be independant? I don't.

 

[M80]

Agreed Mr Geed, doesn't sound like it.
If or when this escalates will others then start to tell Madrid to wind it back or leave them to deal with their internal affairs though?
I think there will be involvement by others.

 

[davemercedes]

Well - just for once - we should just mind our business!

 

[AMGeed]

Well - just for once - we should just mind our business!

Agree totally. This doesn't concern the UK.