What is going to happen to used car prices of ICE engined cars after 2030 ?

[A.J.]

Interested to hear what members opinions are ?

 

[malcolm E53 AMG]

IMO everything depends on the price and availability of fuel and spare parts regarding what happens to ICE values in the short term. We aren’t there yet and going green forecasts tend to very optomistic I think infrastructure availability will play a big part in the likely timetable I don’t think there will be a major shift to EV before 2040 - mind you Putins folly might hasten things up a bit

 

[Tony Dyson]

I think the slow transition to electric will just continue and current depreciation trends will be unaffected but subject to the usual external forces, PHEV will still be available until 2035 which will extend the transition period. Battery technology has come along leaps and bounds since the first commercial sales of current day electric vehicles and I would think that by 2028-30, they shouldn't be the worry and so costly as they are today.

 

[Frontstep]

You have to think that there will be yet more pecuniary pressure brought to bear on ICE cars.

Persuading people to swap is an ongoing problem.

Not least the cost and then the inconvenience for so many.

The Government has less and less money from us to subsidise.

 

[NJS5]

You have to think that there will be yet more pecuniary pressure brought to bear on ICE cars.

Possibly; but if the government of the day is struggling to provide an adequate number of charging points and/or adequate public transport then the ICE's life may be extended.

 

[Snake Charmer]

How many 15 to 20+ year old cars do you see daily? Think 2050.

 

[DSK]

I think they will manipulate fuel prices to force the majority etc.

Those who can afford it won’t care. I can see most stuff taking a fall but I genuinely think proper stuff like the 4.2 RS4, AMGs, Evo’s, XKRs, etc will retain their prices as they will only be bought by those with easily disposable incomes. If I had the space I’d be snapping some gems now.


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[DSK]

How many 15 to 20+ year old cars do you see daily? Think 2050.

I see 2 every day in my drive lol.

The issues are down to how people maintain them, parts dry up, breakers become thin, the mechanics who know them are no more etc.

In this day and age very few people it seems to know how to do basics checks and Maintain cars, if they need to spend £500 on something they scrap it and get another etc and more recent stuff is just built like a crap so won’t last anyway or it will genuinely be daft to repair.


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[A.J.]

I think they will manipulate fuel prices to force the majority etc.

Those who can afford it won’t care. I can see most stuff taking a fall but I genuinely think proper stuff like the 4.2 RS4, AMGs, Evo’s, XKRs, etc will retain their prices as they will only be bought by those with easily disposable incomes. If I had the space I’d be snapping some gems now.


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I tend to agree with you there, the majority of drivers will be forced out of their ICE's by fuel taxes and hence the market place for them will shrink. Gas Guzzlers will obviously be hit even harder and render them unsaleable.

 

[rf065]

I think they will still be wanted for a few years yet.

Electric cars are LESS reliable than petrols and diesels with nearly a third reporting faults taking longer to fix - and Tesla is rated worst overall, says Which?​

 

[Srdl]

What about the recent electric models? What will they be worth in a few years time once we have the latest battery technology giving us much better range and weight savings?

 

[Frontstep]

Reminds me of the first Dysons/Teslas they used to have a separate bin at the tip.

They will get better and like Dysons people will find a way past the main failure points.

Look at the Toyota Prius, America is awash with people to fix them and they now do mega miles even as Taxis.

 

[Wearsafoxhat]

How many 15 to 20+ year old cars do you see daily? Think 2050.

Two on my drive aswell…

as for 2050, I’ll be approaching treble figures so will cross that bridge when I get there.. and no doubt still looking for a sun visor for my SL.


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[Frontstep]

You could always make a sun visor or two.

I remember making a pair for some old gem years ago, thin ply cut to shape and trimmed to suit headlining with fine wool headlining fabric.

The brackets are common.

 

[Bay Leaf]

My second car/daily driver is getting on for 18 years old and nothing wrong with it. As to electric vehicles unless we go down the full nuclear or shale gas extraction rout. where's all the electricity going to come from. Because it's not just cars, it's trucks/busses/railway locomotives/ships, basically every form of transport that will have to green. Maybe the hydrogen cell tech of which I know nothing about might be the answer..

 

[Binnedit]

IMHO:

ICE will be around & viable well beyond 2030, subject to taxation strategy.

More to the point, how residuals for electric cars hold up? Already reports of battery fails & repair / replacement costs in excess of the vehicles value. Battery technology & longevity will improve over time.

Finance Companies also appear reticent about future values of EV's. One such, valued a £50k brand new Tesla at £15k after 4 years on a PCP.

Many, many issues with the switch to EV's yet to b resolved.

Hydrogen, I believe will be a much more viable option.

 

[A.J.]

My second car/daily driver is getting on for 18 years old and nothing wrong with it. As to electric vehicles unless we go down the full nuclear or shale gas extraction rout. where's all the electricity going to come from. Because it's not just cars, it's trucks/busses/railway locomotives/ships, basically every form of transport that will have to green. Maybe the hydrogen cell tech of which I know nothing about might be the answer..

Back to the 80's then. We will be siting in the darkness enjoying many power cuts

 

[Blobcat]

We had a power cut yesterday morning, we‘ve been running on 2 large gen sets in the village since late last night as they’ve not been able to fix the issue. Now with ICE vehicles and mains gas a lot of us have the diversity to heat, cook and go out if we needed to.

With the plans to ban ICE and gas boilers the total reliance on electric supply is a concern that’s not really been talked about (by those peddling this carp…)

 

[A.J.]

We had a power cut yesterday morning, we‘ve been running on 2 large gen sets in the village since late last night as they’ve not been able to fix the issue. Now with ICE vehicles and mains gas a lot of us have the diversity to heat, cook and go out if we needed to.

With the plans to ban ICE and gas boilers the total reliance on electric supply is a concern that’s not really been talked about (by those peddling this carp…)

A taste of things to come

 

[sonic]

I read an interesting article recently about EV's, stating their value would soon drop.
Its almost 3 years since the first batch of EV's were leased. They will soon come on to the second hand market.
Manufactures are now making EV designed vehicles, rather than adapting ICE vehicles. Another cost saving.
Battery technology is improving so reducing the cost of batteries.