Brexit

[LostKiwi]

By the time Greece made its duplicity known it was already deep in the brown stuff.
The EU had no choice but to bail it out. The only other choice was to let Greece go bankrupt.
As for austerity if we use the metaphor from earlier.... If I went to my bank manager and said "I'm broke - please lend me another £10 grand", then presuming he said yes I am sure he would want to be sure I was changing my spending habits to be able to pay it back and at the very least I would expect a serious talking to about cutting my costs to fit my income.

 

[davemercedes]

Land Rover 21/04/2017
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-speth-effects-uk-industry-cars-a7694246.html
Jaguar Land Rover chief latest to warn of Brexit’s effects on UK industry

The news that LR plan to create 5000 jobs "by the end of the year" is of course very good news. But conversely (above) their CEO and every other motor manufacturer has warned of the "cliff edge" approach to Brexit. There are various quotes regarding the additional average cost price of a car (+£2372) if we leave the Customs Union and (try) to go back to the WTO. So I sincerely hope David Davis knows what he's doing... he reportedly reassured Brexiteer backbenchers privately last week that he would not water down Brexit (after it was reported Chancellor Philip Hammond, a Remainer, was pushing for Britain to remain in the customs union).

I don't get it? Every motor manufacturer has warned against the "cliff edge" approach but even so one is setting out to create 5000 new jobs while the Brexit negotiator is threatening to add £thousands to the cost of their product!

 

[LostKiwi]

I don't get it? Every motor manufacturer has warned against the "cliff edge" approach but even so one is setting out to create 5000 new jobs while the Brexit negotiator is threatening to add £thousands to the cost of their product!

Of course what we don't know is how many jobs they would have created if Brexit wasn't in the pipeline?
My other half works for JLR and and has seen them post record sales this year however internally they are cautious about Brexit.

 

[Frosty149]

Regards the Greece historic deficit;
A large part of the debt mounted up from sucking in overseas goods and services from.....
Surprise, surprise France and Germany!
Greek default will hit them hardest!

 

[davemercedes]

Of course what we don't know is how many jobs they would have created if Brexit wasn't in the pipeline?
My other half works for JLR and and has seen them post record sales this year however internally they are cautious about Brexit.

I'm still rather wryly amused to see that the three "big duffer" companies, having been gone through take overs by German (BMW - failed) American (Ford - failed) then finally Indian (Tata) companies (and of course the rising from the ashes of Phoenix along the way) are now the most successful of our original" home grown" motor industry.

 

[Frosty149]

By the time Greece made its duplicity known it was already deep in the brown stuff.
The EU had no choice but to bail it out. The only other choice was to let Greece go bankrupt.
As for austerity if we use the metaphor from earlier.... If I went to my bank manager and said "I'm broke - please lend me another £10 grand", then presuming he said yes I am sure he would want to be sure I was changing my spending habits to be able to pay it back and at the very least I would expect a serious talking to about cutting my costs to fit my income.

By the time Greece made its duplicity known it was already deep in the brown stuff.
The EU had no choice but to bail it out. The only other choice was to let Greece go bankrupt.
As for austerity if we use the metaphor from earlier.... If I went to my bank manager and said "I'm broke - please lend me another £10 grand", then presuming he said yes I am sure he would want to be sure I was changing my spending habits to be able to pay it back and at the very least I would expect a serious talking to about cutting my costs to fit my income.

Don't forget the bank are not a charity- they want to lend to lend in order to profit....
Same with Greece and any bank/lender...
The next tranche of funds is to meet its repayment commitments in part

 

[Yugguy]

Everyone needs to be cautious about brexit, doesn't mean it can't be a success. Interesting reading an interview with Tristan hunt, ex Labour MP and pro remain, but a realistic remainer in that he knows it's happening and thinks we need to be positive and make it work.

 

[davemercedes]

Everyone needs to be cautious about brexit, doesn't mean it can't be a success. Interesting reading an interview with Tristan hunt, ex Labour MP and pro remain, but a realistic remainer in that he knows it's happening and thinks we need to be positive and make it work.

Fine, but are we supposed to just ignore the negatives. then?
- What a load of sphericals... anyone who wants to voluntarily take an increase of 3 percent on their costs is welcome
- But I didn't volunteer to pay that - (oh yeah, that's democracy innit), but all the Brexquitters said it was just Project Fear!
- When I said earlier that the pound is still down 15% and inflation is 2.9 and rising I was told it was worth it!
- Huh! It was worth it for the poster to spend my money apparently!
- Lots of people told me "Don't worry, currency goes up and down all the time"
- When is the UP coming???
- Then they tell me exporters are doing well - to which I respond Yes, we are all subsidizing them by paying more for less!

 

[Vintage Racer]

No matter what your political persuasion..............this is funny.

.

 

[triumphstag]

Fine, but are we supposed to just ignore the negatives. then?

No, just not focus on them with every last breath and find fault or issue with every positive that comes along.

Be aware of the risks and pitfalls and come up with a strategy or deal that negates or minimises them. Pretty simple really. Done in business all the time.

 

[davemercedes]

No, just not focus on them with every last breath and find fault or issue with every positive that comes along.

Be aware of the risks and pitfalls and come up with a strategy or deal that negates or minimises them. Pretty simple really. Done in business all the time.

Well I never.
- So what is your pretty simple strategy or deal that negates or minimises them (just like in business all the time)?
- Or do you content yourself with thinking (or hoping) "it's worth it"?

 

[LostKiwi]

Well I never.
- So what is your pretty simple strategy or deal that negates or minimises them (just like in business all the time)?
- Or do you content yourself with thinking (or hoping) "it's worth it"?

Emu syndrome?

 

[triumphstag]

Emu syndrome?

No, just not panic and whinge syndrome.

 

[Yugguy]

Dave it rather feels like you want it to fail so you can say "I told you so".

 

[triumphstag]

Well I never.
- So what is your pretty simple strategy or deal that negates or minimises them (just like in business all the time)?
- Or do you content yourself with thinking (or hoping) "it's worth it"?

It's a complex set of negotiations, and without being on the negotiating team I can't tell you what they are. However, I deal with business transactions every day and some of them do have the potential to cause financial pain to the organisation. They are all dealt with by looking at the risks and impacts and coming up with a mitigation plan.

What we don't do is look for every possible negative and whinge about what a bad idea the whole project is.

The fact is for all the negative articles you post on here on a daily basis you don't know what is actually going on in the negotiating room. You don't know what will happen as a result. You have your overly negative opinion and outlook and are basing everything you see and think on that. I don't know what's going on in there either. What I do believe is that it won't be as bad as the doom articles are making out.

From an economic perspective, it may well take 10 years to stabilise the country and the currency. I'm sorry that causes you personal financial issues at the moment - it causes them to me as well - the difference is I am happy to accept them for long term benefit to my children and their children.

As for someone paying you back what you have "lost"...... I will do that when you pay me back the extra tax I have had to pay for it to be given to the EU over the last 40 years

 

[Frontstep]

How will we get it back "when is the up coming"

 

[Yugguy]

Indeed. If you go into any project expecting to fail then that's what you'll get.

 

[Frosty149]

Some economists observations:

• The Euro fails to account for the divergence in competitiveness, this has caused trade imbalances and lower domestic demand
• Bond yields have been higher because of failure of European Central Bank to act as lender of last resort. Higher bond yields have created the necessity for unsuitable austerity policies.
• The German dominated ECB prioritise low inflation and monetary stability over more practical goals like full employment and positive economic growth.

However, it is worth pointing out that as the UK did not join the Euro, it is not sharing in the costs of a single currency. However, the economic performance of the UK hasn’t been much better than our Eurozone partners. Leaving the EU, wouldn’t change that much. We are not in the Euro anyway, and the ECB will not change their economic policy, just because the UK left the EU.

• Much of EU spending is highly inefficient and wasteful. Despite reforms, the biggest target of EU spending is still agriculture, which benefits economies with a big agricultural sector. The UK gains little from the common agricultural policy; some of the main recipients are large wealthy landowners who perversely benefit from the subsidies they are entitled to, this effectively rewards large landowners at the expense of their smaller competitors.

Over to you for challenges

 

[davemercedes]

Dave it rather feels like you want it to fail so you can say "I told you so".

I voted remain and I've said why but I've also said especially - to those who spout virtual Euro-hate etc that I won't stop pointing out the ongoing true negatives (like the currency fall that I was told "don't fret it goes up ad down all the time... but not for the £ apparently...).

I desperately want to be wrong (because we are leaving) but I don't think so. But the way some' people give me the "it's worth it (to subsidize export/to suffer 3% inflation/expect people to lose jobs (lots of them) etc rather than let Europeans control anything" hate crap) I almost am - not hoping but looking forward to saying I told you so.

Meanwhile those sa people hold up the lying, scheming self-promoting Theresa Mayhem as the darling of "democracy" (!!!) (where democracy it seems is what they want). This dreadful woman's only just managed to cook the books today to give NI a £1Bn bribe at our cost... "without fear or favour", eh?
- It makes the coalition between Cameron and Slick Nick with "I am" Vince Important Cabel look quite amateur!

 

[Frontstep]

"The minister responsible for cutting income support for the poor, Iain Duncan Smith, lives on an estate owned by his wife's family. During the last 10 years it has received €1.5m in income support from taxpayers"

Or EU farming subsidies.
Which of course is a benefit which is not subject to the cap that mere mortals are, there was a proposal to cap this gravy at £250,000 the UK objected.
Roll on our exit.