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davemercedes

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Hello!

Some time ago I said we were going away for two or three days… but due to a family problem it turned into nearly four weeks and what have I missed? Not a lot, going by Ms Mayhem’s “BIG SPEECH” which just as before has the EU leaders saying she has actually clarified nothing and still needs to spell it out.
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Last week there were trumpets sounding about the pound’s “recovery” … but in fact it hasn’t recovered – Carney and another one of the interest rate "panel" who in the past have driven it downwards with public remarks, gave a strong impression that the bank rate was likely to shift (upwards – where else!) and that drove market speculators to push the exchange rate up but it’s already sliding back again. Clever players will have made a lot of dosh out of it of course; nothing new then! While it should probably mean that our savings might pay the odd penny more while it stays a bit higher, it will quickly hurt those with mortgages (especially the youngsters) who have become very comfortable with low interest rates.

A few weeks ago I uploaded the week’s headlines from Reuters and quite a few Brexquitters accused me of ”trawling the web for bad news” when all I actually did was list the headlines from one, respectable news station (Reuters). So I took a look on Sunday at the headings for last week:-

UK factory orders grow at weakest rate since April - CBI 22 Sep 2017

- No, it’s not speculation – these are the facts from the CBI

Boost for Hammond as UK posts smallest August budget deficit in 10 years 21 Sep 2017

- Apart from record sales tax revenue at least we can see what austerity achieved.
- But from the news this week it looks as though he’s about to lose his grip on spending…

Bank of England survey shows little sign of UK pay growth improving 20 Sep 2017

- Nothing to surprise anyone here really, even though the 1 percent “dam” has been breached.

UK retail sales surge in August, likely to boost BoE rate hike bets

- Speculation grows that the increase in UK retail sales is likely to boost BoE rate hike bets.
- It’s surprising there was no comment about ever-increasing debt levels.
Personally, I think most of the employed public have thrown caution to the wind and are simply living for today.

UK employers' optimism falls to lowest since Brexit vote - REC 20 Sep 2017

- British employers are their most pessimistic about the outlook for the economy since last year's Brexit vote and want clarity about the departure from the European Union, a survey showed on Wednesday.

- Yes, surprisingly the EU want to know what Mrs Mayhem wants as well!

Brexit, slowdown: a bleak backdrop for UK shift towards higher rates 20 Sep 2017

- BOE has chosen an unusual time to announce that British interest rates are likely to rise for the first time in more than 10 years.

Bank of England's Carney sees Brexit pushing up inflation, slowing growth 19 Sep 2017

- WASHINGTOn: BOE Governor Mark Carney said on Monday that Brexit is likely to hurt Britain's growth prospects in the short term and push up inflation as the country adjusts to life outside the EU.
- What does he mean, it will push up inflation? It’s already at 3 percent!

UK households squeezed again, BoE might make it worse - survey 18 Sep 2017

- LONDON British households are feeling the tightest squeeze on their finances in three years and the Bank of England's signal that it is getting close to raising interest rates is likely to make things worse, a survey showed on Monday.
- The last thing we should expect is any help!

Meanwhile, the news continues to warn that thousands of finance jobs are going to be lost. So at the very least, we shall lose their income and corporation tax as their employers set up operations within EU and many of the employees who remain here will queue up to take unemployment benefit!
…that’s a cue for a certain gent to tell me that it’s “only speculation…”

UK businesses call for three-year Brexit transitional deal 18 Sep 2017
- LONDON British business leaders from companies including BT and Centrica said they wanted a three-year Brexit transitional deal to protect jobs in Britain and Europe.

- Nothing new there then… apart from Bumbling Boris opposing anything he can get away with.

The real lack of leadership and repeated demands for clarity from industry is quite frightening. Right at the very beginning, I said that I thought “they” had no idea what they are doing and I have no reason to change that view now. I also said that we would get what the EU chose to give us and it looks as though sadly that just about sums it up.

As if this wasn’t enough, the headlines on the Sunday rags have highlighted once again the disarray in the cabinet. I shall stand by and wait now for the Brexquitters to tell me how beneficial it will be to “seize back control” which is so obviously dangerous that even the once pro-remain Mrs Mayhem has had to make her “BIG SPEECH” and plead for a stay of execution. But it certainly didn’t impress the EU being long on what they should do and short on what we will offer – even now, months later, there is still no meat on the EU residents bone.

On the leadership score, I think Mrs Mayhem will probably be gone within three weeks. David Davies will take her job but he won’t be strong enough to get rid of Bumbling Boris or Hammond so he’ll bribe them as far as possible until he can wield a big stick. But her departure will provide the ideal reson for the EU to accept a delay on the “divorce” process.

One day the Brexquitters will recognise the sheer harm they are doing to our country. Personally now, as a non wage-earner, I just hope our pensions and savings will keep us going for long enough but with inflation likely to be 5% by the end of 2018 and lots of things heading for short supply and linked price hikes it’s going to be very hard making ends meet…

Fuel (Diesel)

The cost of fuel (which is directly influenced by the value of the pound) affects all of us and while the government proclaims how “strong” we are it’s interesting to note that according to https://www.drive-alive.co.uk/fuel_prices_europe.html#Petrol and diesel prices in Europe we are paying the 18th (18/21) highest price for diesel.

Borrowing

Contrary to the “played up” version spouted by Government MPs, the country is currently pretty sick. The falling pound mixed with the government’s rigid adherence to austerity targets undoubtedly led to increased borrowing by families which is particularly unhealthy given the “great unknown” of the day after Brexit. Government should undoubtedly share or take the blame for not keeping the public aware of the likely situation to come. But of course they won’t.

With the background of the very poor financial outlook above, our average personal debt, especially among younger people, continues to cause worries and glancing at the political gossip in the weekend’s headlines, Corbyn is now (apparently) targeting the credit card companies.

Personal debt has increased by an extra £886.84 per adult family which has increased in total from £1.484 TRILLION at the end of March 2016 – to a terrifying total of £1.529 TRILLION at the end of March 2017. Drilling down into the numbers, the outstanding Consumer Credit total lending was £197.4 BILLION at the end of March 2017 (up from £182.8 BILLION at the end of March 2016), which is an increase of £288.31 for every adult in UK.
- This means average consumer credit borrowing per UK adult is now £3,909

Credit Card Borrowing

Total credit card debt in March 2017 was £67.6 BILLION - an average of £2,504 per household.

As Bankruptcy Advice Online points out, this means that at the average credit card interest rate it would take 25 years and 11 months to repay your debt (if you made the minimum repayments each month).

What a brave new world we shall inherit when we take back control.
 

Headhurts

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Phew!

I still want to leave Dave but welcome back.

Robin


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malcolm E53 AMG

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I do agree on one point Dave!

There is a credit bubble and should interest rates move up to 3-4% there will be real financial hardship for households but blame this on the results of the financial crisis not Brexit. The banks are currently undergoing a strength test to make sure they have the cash reserves and can deal with the above fallout which in turn will hopefully slow down the rate of consumer borrowing. The real issue here is that the country is borrowing to live beyond its means to buy expensive German products amongst other things which brings me to my main point that the EU is there to serve the German economy
 

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The UK economy is highly dependent on retail sales to generate revenue for the government. VAT receipts are the obvious source of income but there are many other hidden sources of tax the government relies on. It will be interesting to see the effect a rise in interest rates has on consumer spending and the knock on effect on the retail trade and economy in general.
I see the raising of interest rates as a very dangerous thing at present and whilst it may suit investors the average person in the street will be hard hit if jobs suffer and the fundamental costs of already present debt rise.
 

malcolm E53 AMG

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I guess we are caught in a catch 22 situation, the housing price bubble still exists which plays a large part in consumer debt so until house building catches up with demand there will be no downward pressure on borrowing and the economy will remain at risk, immigration has only added fuel to the fire
 

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As a 'general' if the credit is too freely available people will make use of it.

Before 2007/8 buying a house beyond realistic means was justified by many by the unsustainable inflation of them, you can always sell for a profit down the line. That changed pretty much over night and so did the credit availability.

Those in difficulties will source funds for the short term relief, difficult to blame them. That of course 'generally' is deferring the inevitable. Pay day loans and such must apply massive pressures on those that take them.

Then we have consumerism, buy- well actually take now pay later. Must have a nice car to look / feel good, we deserve a nice holiday...... It's too easy to thoughtlessly swipe a card for a new sofa, some overpriced branded clothes, an expensive meal out. How many seriously consider the later pressure of the repayments, and if they will still have the ability to make them?

There are different perceptions on all of this. The £ falling, the UK falling credit rating, the bouncing economy, is preventing the B of E having the confidence to increase interest rates. After all it has been about the only steady part of the economy since March 2009.
If they increase the artificially low interest rates by just a few percent the social impact will be considerable, at a time when that is already difficult to manage. It will increase the burden on the social support provided by the state in ways most wouldn't imagine.

Even as a greedy unscrupulous property landlord I don't mind if those that would increase the demand on my properties are able to stay where they are.
The long term plan should be to reduce personal debt, but as said that reduces tax revenues and the Gov't need them.
 

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Heard an interview from the new kids on the block in German politics, the AFD, on R5 the other day.

They have gained seats for the exact same reason UKIP did, and the exact same reasons Brexit happened.

The concerns of the indigenous working-class people were being ignored. Wether legitimate or not, they were simply not being addressed by the major parties.

The CDU has lost 55% of its vote compared to the previous election so if I were Merkel I wouldn't be grinning.

And if I were an EU czar I'd be starting to get worried. Grexit? Frexit? Who knows...
 
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LostKiwi

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I think Frexit is quite unlikely. Le Pen campaigned with a Frexit as one of her major points however due to the political split in France the French had a (perceived) viable non-mainstream centre party which could attract protest votes with no risk of extreme left or right consequences.

If Frexit were a real threat Le Pen would have had a much higher proportion of the vote.
 

Yugguy

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True but if a new party comes along and captures the interest. I liken Le Pen's party to our BNP, unpalatable for most as it only ever campaigns against immigrants and its racism is thinly veiled at best. UKIP for all its faults didnt solely do that.
 

LostKiwi

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...if a new party comes along and captures the interest...

Thats what Macron was - the new party. A 'safe' bet that wasn't the old guard.

The nearest equivalent in the UK is Lib Dems.... but they are very adroit at shooting themselves in the foot (as are UKIP).
 

davemercedes

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I do agree on one point Dave!

There is a credit bubble and should interest rates move up to 3-4% there will be real financial hardship for households but blame this on the results of the financial crisis not Brexit. The banks are currently undergoing a strength test to make sure they have the cash reserves and can deal with the above fallout which in turn will hopefully slow down the rate of consumer borrowing. The real issue here is that the country is borrowing to live beyond its means to buy expensive German products amongst other things which brings me to my main point that the EU is there to serve the German economy

All quite true and the people who have loaded up their cards are in for a very rude awakening - I think quite soon. But its also inescapable that personal debt has rocketed since Brexit. Austerity measures have also virtually forced people into some borrowing.

Funny, though. Remember how it was essential to pay bonuses to all the bankers who lost our shirts for us so that we would remain competitive and keep all that talent? Well, (no surprises really!) but the BOE says they're not so astute: -

UK banks must bolster defences against consumer loan defaults - Bank of England
British banks have underestimated the risks from a surge in consumer borrowing and need to hold an extra 10 billion pounds....

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...r-loan-defaults-bank-of-england-idUKKCN1C00SK
 
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M80

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It looks to me like Merkel won as much as May did at the last UK election.
I can understand if Merkel was just very tired but to me she didn't just look less than jubilant she looked worried. Maybe she realises that her policies aren't popular and Germany is going to experience problems. The 'nationalist' strength is growing and the anger on the streets isn't a good thing.
 

davemercedes

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The UK economy is highly dependent on retail sales to generate revenue for the government. VAT receipts are the obvious source of income but there are many other hidden sources of tax the government relies on. It will be interesting to see the effect a rise in interest rates has on consumer spending and the knock on effect on the retail trade and economy in general.
I see the raising of interest rates as a very dangerous thing at present and whilst it may suit investors the average person in the street will be hard hit if jobs suffer and the fundamental costs of already present debt rise.
 

davemercedes

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Yes, and I'm most unimpressed at the way the so-called 'rock star of banking', Mark Carney has "telegraphed" the possibilities of economic change which caused the pound to rocket and we shall have the pain of it declining all over again. It's especially concerning because he lowered the interest rates to virtually zilch in the first place and said we would have "some"inflation...

Remember - he's the one they said was the best for job...

On top of the benefits below we gave him £25K "housing settlement" and he gets £5,000-a-week housing allowance.

Conversely, (in June 2015), the PM's salary was increased from £142,500 to £149,440. Perhaps that explains why we have such an ongoing shambles!
Pay-Mark-Carney.jpg
 

Frontstep

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You can't beat shovelling things into the taxable benefits column and £145,000 pension contributions are pretty decent.
What one wonders is the £40 PW "other remuneration" ?

Chocolate Hob Knobs, sharp pencils, a massage ?
 

davemercedes

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You can't beat shovelling things into the taxable benefits column and £145,000 pension contributions are pretty decent.
What one wonders is the £40 PW "other remuneration" ?

Chocolate Hob Knobs, sharp pencils, a massage ?

Yup. He certainly isn't poverty stricken... The £40 pw mystery will be "something like" incidental expenses like parking and tips that don't require details/receipts etc... :) - the kind of thing that other mere mortals have to pay for themselves!

The pension contribution is terrific as you say - I wish I'd had just £45K pension fund benefit each year... that must be a private scheme that is portable so he can take it back home when he leaves. That'll help boost our exports a bit!:(
 

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We can comfort ourselves in that we are paying it.
 
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